A Democratic Congressional Sweep Without a Gas Price Spike Is Very Likely by Year-End
Source: Polymarket market “Dem sweep & Gas hits $3.50 by end of 2026?”
Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas: very likely (93%)
Leading outcome
Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas 93%
Very likely · B
leaning yes → very likely
venues disagree 11.9pp
24h move
▲
29.9 pts
Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas
Traded 24h
$29K
$31K all time
Resolves by
2027-01-01
Source markets
115
115 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas
93%
▲
29.9
Dem sweep; Gas hits $3.50
6%
▲
1.5
No Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas
1%
▼
29.0
No Dem sweep; Gas hits $3.50
0%
▼
2.4
Source markets for this story
Who will control the House?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 100% · +6.3 24h
Who will control the Senate?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 100% · +23.6 24h
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Kalshi · Democrats sweep 100% · +24.6 24h
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 99% · +19.8 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 100% · +5.3 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 100% · +24.2 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 100% · +24.2 24h
Maine Senate winner?
Kalshi · Troy Jackson 93% · +19.9 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 100% · +25.4 24h
Iowa Senate winner?
Kalshi · Josh Turek 99% · +46.3 24h
Ohio Senate winner?
Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 100% · +27.8 24h
Nebraska Senate winner?
Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 93% · +25.1 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 99% · +41.7 24h
Minnesota Senate winner?
Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 98% · +7.8 24h
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · Adam Hamilton 100% · +37.6 24h
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 98% · +17.8 24h
Blue wave in 2026?
Kalshi · Yes 100% · +12.9 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 100% · +6.6 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · November 2 100% · +31.9 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · James Talarico, 3.5+ pts 100% · +52.9 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Annie Andrews (D) 100% · +68.5 24h
NY-17 House winner?
Kalshi · Cait Conley 99% · +44.0 24h
Louisiana Senate winner?
Kalshi · Julia Letlow 97% · +9.8 24h
Maine Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 94% · +20.6 24h
Alaska Senate winner?
Kalshi · Democratic party 90% · +19.3 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · ≤47 98% · +41.9 24h
Mississippi Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 93% · +7.1 24h
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 94% · +25.0 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi · Democrats, 14 to 16% 49% · +41.1 24h
Florida Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Ashley Moody (R) 100% · +13.5 24h
Iowa Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Josh Turek (D) 100% · +48.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 100% · +27.3 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 7% · -51.0 24h
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Adam Hamilton (D) 100% · +38.2 24h
Blue tsunami in 2026?
Kalshi · Yes 96% · +29.1 24h
Michigan Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · El-Sayed, 2.5+ pts 95% · +25.7 24h
Minnesota Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Peggy Flanagan (D) 99% · +6.2 24h
VA-05 House winner?
Kalshi · John McGuire 89% · +26.0 24h
Closest Senate race in 2026?
Kalshi · Mississippi 48% · +44.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo
Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 94% · +28.0 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Mary Peltola (D) 90% · +17.0 24h
NC-03 House winner?
Kalshi · Greg Murphy 64% · +3.0 24h
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Chris Pappas (D) 100% · +4.5 24h
TN-09 House winner?
Kalshi · Brent Taylor 59% · -25.0 24h
Louisiana Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Julia Letlow (R) 98% · +11.0 24h
Montana Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Kurt Alme (R) 98% · +6.6 24h
NC-03 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Greg Murphy (R) 71% · +11.2 24h
Blue wave in 2026?
Polymarket · Yes 100% · +7.8 24h
NV-02 House winner?
Kalshi · Teresa Benitez-Thompson 78% · +42.0 24h
NC-13 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Paul Barringer (D) 98% · +64.8 24h
Will Democrats sweep all swing state Governor races?
Kalshi · Yes 78% · +19.0 24h
MT-01 House winner?
Kalshi · Sam Forstag 88% · +30.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Talarico 9-12% 56% · +50.5 24h
Will the House impeach Trump?
Kalshi · Before Aug 1, 2027 75% · +25.0 24h
NC-14 House winner?
Kalshi · LaKesha Womack 97% · +75.2 24h
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)
Polymarket · 45 75% · +63.5 24h
TX-23 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Katy Padilla Stout (D) 93% · +47.5 24h
NY-21 House winner?
Kalshi · Anthony Constantino 93% · +23.1 24h
FL-09 House winner?
Kalshi · Darren Soto 91% · +52.3 24h
Ohio Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Brown, 2+ pts 89% · +29.0 24h
ME-02 House winner?
Kalshi · Paul LePage 85% · +27.0 24h
North Carolina Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Roy Cooper (D) 100% · +2.2 24h
NY-17 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Cait Conley (D) 98% · +39.3 24h
Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races?
Kalshi · Yes 91% · +26.1 24h
MO-02 House winner?
Kalshi · Fred Wellman 95% · +54.9 24h
South Carolina Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Graham, 3.5+ pts 10% · -29.1 24h
Georgia Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Ossoff, 4+ pts 100% · +7.3 24h
SC-02 House winner?
Kalshi · Joe Wilson 96% · +4.4 24h
NJ-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Zack Mullock (D) 98% · +67.0 24h
NY-01 House winner?
Kalshi · Nick LaLota 79%
Michigan Senate: margin of victory
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed, 4-6% 50% · +34.0 24h
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Polymarket · Yes 100%
NC-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Richard Ojeda (D) 98% · +64.4 24h
VA-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · John McGuire (R) 92% · +30.5 24h
KY-06 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Zach Dembo (D) 100% · +44.3 24h
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · Below 190 99% · +54.7 24h
Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?
Polymarket · Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken 97% · +27.0 24h
Arkansas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Tom Cotton (R) 99% · +3.5 24h
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Democrats 14-16% 45% · +36.8 24h
FL-13 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Anna Paulina Luna (R) 99% · +34.6 24h
Senate Combo: Texas, Michigan, Maine
Polymarket · Dems sweep 92% · +30.0 24h
Kentucky Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Andy Barr (R) 100% · +3.5 24h
VA-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Shannon Taylor (D) 99% · +31.6 24h
AL-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Shomari Figures (D) 100% · +51.3 24h
OK-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Stephanie Bice (R) 95% · +10.6 24h
How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
Polymarket · ≤46 and ≤192 98% · +63.5 24h
FL-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Darren Soto (D) 93% · +55.5 24h
SC-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Nancy Lacore (D) 93% · +45.6 24h
FL-27 House Election Winner
Polymarket · María Elvira Salazar (R) 95% · +34.5 24h
ME-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Paul LePage (R) 86% · +27.0 24h
NC-11 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jamie Ager (D) 100% · +13.5 24h
Idaho Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Jim Risch (R) 99% · +1.9 24h
TN-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Brent Taylor (R) 64% · -20.0 24h
FL-22 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Pia Dandiya (D) 100% · +25.4 24h
Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 99% · +10.8 24h
FL-07 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Ryan Elijah (R) 98% · +36.0 24h
PA-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Bob Harvie (D) 94% · +29.3 24h
Blue tsunami in 2026?
Polymarket · Yes 98% · +29.1 24h
OH-10 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Kristina Knickerbocker (D) 97% · +67.7 24h
AP calls the House by...?
Polymarket · November 15, 11:59 PM 100% · +5.8 24h
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?
Polymarket · Yes 98% · +57.7 24h
NV-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) 76% · +42.0 24h
Michigan Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · El-Sayed 3-6% 34% · +13.5 24h
AR-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · French Hill (R) 91% · +17.0 24h
CO-03 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Dwayne Romero (D) 72% · +32.5 24h
Ohio Senate Election Margin of Victory
Polymarket · Brown 3-6% 62% · +39.0 24h
FL-14 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Kathy Castor (D) 100% · +22.4 24h
MO-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Fred Wellman (D) 99% · +57.1 24h
Dem sweep & Gas hits $3.50 by end of 2026?
Polymarket · Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas 93% · +29.9 24h
NY-21 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Anthony Constantino (R) 95% · +24.5 24h
FL-25 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jared Moskowitz (D) 100% · +17.4 24h
KS-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Derek Schmidt (R) 98% · +19.4 24h
Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Polymarket · Ossoff 15-18% 91% · +81.0 24h
NC-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Don Davis (D) 96% · +8.9 24h
Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?
Polymarket · Dem sweep; No recession 66% · +20.4 24h
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