U.S.Greg Abbott on track to win

Greg Abbott Holds a Narrowing Lead in the Texas Governor's Race

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Texas Governor winner?”

Greg Abbott: likely (77%)
Resolved The money put Greg Abbott at 88% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Greg Abbott 77% Likely · Stable · C · tracked 81 days peak 88% (75d ago) · low 70% (26d ago) 7 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 1.0 pts Greg Abbott
Traded 24h $75K $2.5M all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03

Where the money stands

Greg Abbott 77% ▲ 1.0
Gina Hinojosa 25% 0.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

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Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

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Gavin Newsom: unlikely (15%)

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Updated 10:31 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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A New White House Press Secretary Is Likely Named by Year-End

likely (78%)

The slow drift away from an earlier deadline suggests the transition is happening on a deliberate timeline, not an urgent one — and Anna Kelly's modest 16% odds mean the successor is still very much an open question.

Updated 7:28 AM ET ▼ down overnight
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traded today $146K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade C tracked 4 days venues disagree 5.5pp