U.S.Andy Barr (R) on track to win

Andy Barr Is Very Likely to Hold Kentucky's Senate Seat for Republicans

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Kentucky Senate Election Winner”

Andy Barr (R): very likely (96%)
Leading outcome Andy Barr (R) 96% Very likely · Stable · D · tracked 73 days virtually certain → very likely
24h move ▼ 2.1 pts Andy Barr (R)
Traded 24h $16K $54K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04 in 2 days

Where the money stands

Andy Barr (R) 96% ▼ 2.1
Charles Booker (D) 4% ▲ 1.6
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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U.S. odds favor Democratic Party

Democrats Increasingly Favored to Retake the Senate

Democratic Party: leaning yes (64%)

With Ohio and Texas both leaning Democratic and the House already near-certain to flip, the money now prices a full Democratic sweep of Congress at 61% — a unified opposition government that would reshape the final two years of any Republican White House agenda.

Updated 5:34 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $130K markets read 22 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 95 days range 72% (0d ago) – 50% (70d ago) resolves in 2 days trending in today's news 2 tier changes venues disagree 14.0pp
U.S. odds favor James Talarico (D)

James Talarico Leads the Texas Senate Race as Democrats Eye an Upset

James Talarico (D): leaning yes (70%)

A Democratic win in Texas now looks more likely than not, and the broader Senate map reinforces it — Michigan, Alaska, and Maine all lean Democratic, while Republicans hold only a fragile edge in Iowa, pointing to a Senate landscape that increasingly favors a Democratic majority.

Updated 6:44 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $646K markets read 69 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 94 days range 72% (2d ago) – 50% (49d ago) resolves in 2 days trending in today's news venues agree
U.S. odds favor Brad Knott (R)

Brad Knott Narrowly Leads NC-13, but Paul Barringer Is Surging Into Contention

Brad Knott (R): leaning yes (56%)

A double-digit swing toward Barringer in a single day — pulling the seat from a coin flip to merely leaning Republican — fits a broader North Carolina pattern where NC-09 and NC-13 are both softening for the GOP, hinting at a statewide headwind rather than a district-specific shock.

Updated 9:38 AM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $190K markets read 21 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 9 days range 68% (7d ago) – 52% (8d ago) resolves in 2 days a coin flip → leaning yes venues disagree 10.4pp