U.S.odds favor Ann Wagner (R)

Ann Wagner Holds a Narrowing Lead in Missouri's Second District

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “MO-02 House Election Winner”

Ann Wagner (R): leaning yes (70%)
Leading outcome Ann Wagner (R) 70% Leaning yes · D
24h move ▼ 4.0 pts Ann Wagner (R)
Traded 24h $15K $42K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04

Where the money stands

Ann Wagner (R) 70% ▼ 4.0
Fred Wellman (D) 30% ▲ 4.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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U.S. odds favor Troy Jackson (D)

Troy Jackson Leads Maine's Senate Race, but Collins Is Closing

Troy Jackson (D): leaning yes (64%)

Democrats still hold a meaningful edge in Maine, but a 9-point single-day slide — with broader Senate control odds also softening — suggests this is a map-wide tightening, not a local anomaly. A Democratic Senate majority still looks likely but is no longer the comfortable assumption it appeared to be at yesterday's peak.

Updated 9:15 AM ET ▼ down overnight
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traded today $281K markets read 19 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 57 days range 74% (2d ago) – 66% (0d ago) venues disagree 29.5pp
U.S. wide open

Jon Ossoff Edges Ahead in a Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Race

Jon Ossoff: unlikely (17%)

A 17% plurality in a field this fractured is a lead in name only — Ocasio-Cortez at 16% and Newsom at 13% are within a rounding error, and JD Vance's 51% hold on the Republican nomination means the general-election matchup is similarly unsettled. The Democratic Party has no heir apparent.

Updated 10:32 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
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traded today $915K markets read 6 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 59 days venues disagree 32.0pp
U.S. odds favor Nithya Raman

Nithya Raman Now Leads the Los Angeles Mayoral Race

Nithya Raman: leaning yes (58%)

What had been Karen Bass's race to lose has flipped — Raman now holds a visible edge, though at 58% the contest remains genuinely competitive and Bass, still priced at 40%, is far from finished.

Updated 9:37 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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traded today $307K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 55 days range 68% (43d ago) – 56% (3d ago) venues agree