U.S.

Ilhan Omar's Citizenship Is Very Unlikely to Be Revoked This Year

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Will Ilhan Omar's citizenship be revoked in 2026?”

very unlikely (10%)
Leading outcome Yes 10% Very unlikely · C
24h move 0.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $38K $101K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S.

Democrats Are Very Likely to Win a House Majority in the Midterms

218+ Democratic seats: very likely (97%)

While coverage fixates on individual races, the money has settled on Democratic control as the strong base case — the real debate has shifted to the margin, with the bulk of probability clustered in the 230–241 seat range rather than a bare majority.

Updated 4:21 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $101K markets read 28 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 81 days range 100% (2d ago) – 13% (47d ago) trending in today's news virtually certain → very likely 8 tier changes venues disagree 26.5pp
U.S. one clear front-runner

Gavin Newsom Surges to Lead the Democratic Frontrunner Race Through October

Gavin Newsom: probably not (40%)

What had been an unlikely outcome is now a live contest — Newsom's sharp move came directly at Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's expense, reshaping the near-term optics of a party still searching for its 2028 identity.

Updated 10:31 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $12K markets read 8 venue Polymarket grade C tracked 6 days range 50% (5d ago) – 40% (0d ago) unlikely → probably not venues disagree 27.1pp
U.S. wide open

The White House Press Secretary Race Is Wide Open

Anna Kelly: unlikely (16%)

A new press secretary is very likely named before the end of 2026, but no single candidate commands enough support to be called a favorite — Anna Kelly's brief surge has already faded, and the field remains fractured among half a dozen names.

Updated 11:20 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $472K markets read 3 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 4 days range 23% (3d ago) – 15% (0d ago) venues disagree 23.4pp