U.S.leaning Above 39.0

Trump's Approval Rating on Election Day Is a Dead Heat

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Trump's approval rating on Nov 6, 2026?”

Above 39.0: a coin flip (46%)
Leading outcome Above 39.0 46% A coin flip · A probably not → a coin flip venues disagree 13.0pp
24h move ▼ 5.0 pts Above 39.0
Traded 24h $110K $229K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-06 in 1 day
Source markets 10 10 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Above 39.0 46% ▼ 5.0
38.8 to 39.0 31% ▲ 10.0
38.5 to 38.7 10% ▼ 2.0
Below 37.3 5% ▼ 5.0
38.2 to 38.4 5% ▲ 2.0
37.6 to 37.8 2% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Will the House impeach Trump? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2028 63% · -12.0 24h
Trump out as President before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 3%
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? Kalshi · Marco Rubio 55% · +40.0 24h
Trump's approval rating on Nov 6, 2026? Kalshi · Above 39.0 46% · -5.0 24h
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? Kalshi · Anna Kelly 23% · +7.0 24h
Will Trump be impeached by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2027 52% · -10.5 24h
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...? Polymarket · December 31 4% · -3.0 24h
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? Polymarket · Yes 1% · -0.7 24h
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027? Polymarket · Pete Hegseth 56% · +12.0 24h
JD Vance out as VP by...? Polymarket · December 31 3%
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S.

The Trump Cabinet's Stability Is a Dead Heat

a coin flip (53%)

No single departure has crystallized — Wiles, Hegseth, and Grenell all sit near 50%, meaning the question is not whether someone leaves but who, and when; the administration looks less like a stable team than a roster where every starting position is in quiet contest.

Updated 8:05 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
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U.S.

Alito Is Now Unlikely to Retire by Mid-2027

probably not (26%)

What had been a coin flip three weeks ago has collapsed to a long shot — the conviction shift is sharp enough to be meaningful, even on a market that has been volatile. If Alito stays, the Court's conservative supermajority holds without any Trump appointment opportunity in this window.

Updated 12:13 AM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $168K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 94 days range 59% (20d ago) – 28% (87d ago) trending in today's news probably not → unlikely 6 tier changes
U.S.

Pete Hegseth's Fate as Defense Secretary Is Now a Coin Flip

a coin flip (50%)

What had been a probably-not has become an even-money question almost overnight — an exit before year-end is now as likely as not, signaling that whatever triggered this repricing is being treated as genuinely dispositive rather than noise.

Updated 1:02 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $307K markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 79 days range 42% (0d ago) – 20% (63d ago) probably not → a coin flip 3 tier changes