U.S.

Hegseth Likely Stays at the Pentagon Through Year-End

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?”

unlikely (24%)
Resolved The money put Yes at 20% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Yes 24% Unlikely · Stable · C · tracked 60 days peak 26% (46d ago) · low 20% (44d ago) 2 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 1.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $46K $562K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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U.S.

Katie Zacharia Is Out as White House Press Secretary

virtually certain (99%)

What had been treated as uncertain is now virtually certain: Zacharia's departure is a done deal, with the only open question being who replaces her — and the money gives Scott Jennings only a one-in-five shot at the job, leaving the successor race wide open.

Updated 6:30 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $345K markets read 30 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 80 days range 94% (13d ago) – 86% (74d ago) trending in today's news 5 tier changes venues disagree 26.5pp
U.S. wide open

Vance Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Presidential Field as AOC Surges

J.D. Vance: unlikely (20%)

No candidate commands conviction — the field is so fractured that the nominal frontrunner holds barely one-in-five odds, meaning the 2028 race is genuinely anyone's to claim. AOC's nomination odds remain well below her general-election ceiling, signaling real doubt she clears the Democratic primary.

Updated 9:50 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $402K markets read 5 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 80 days range 23% (28d ago) – 18% (62d ago) venues disagree 28.2pp