Trump's Approval Rating Looks Stuck Below 38.7 on October 16
Source: Kalshi market “Trump's approval rating on Oct 16, 2026?”
Above 38.7: probably not (42%)
Leading outcome
Above 38.7 42%
Probably not · B
unlikely → probably not
venues disagree 11.2pp
24h move
▲
19.0 pts
Above 38.7
Traded 24h
$57K
$100K all time
Resolves by
2026-10-16
in 1 day
Source markets
42
42 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Above 38.7
42%
▲
19.0
38.5 to 38.7
33%
▲
15.0
38.2 to 38.4
17%
▼
4.0
37.6 to 37.8
6%
▼
4.0
37.9 to 38.1
4%
▼
18.0
37.0 to 37.2
2%
▼
2.0
Source markets for this story
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Kalshi · Democrats sweep 62% · +1.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 90%
Texas Senate winner?
Kalshi · James Talarico 64%
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 90%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 62% · +1.0 24h
Georgia Governor winner?
Kalshi · Rick Jackson 54%
Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 15, 2026?
Kalshi · Above 38.8% 27%
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 69% · +1.0 24h
New York Governor winner?
Kalshi · Kathy Hochul 94%
Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary?
Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 90% · -1.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 62%
Iowa Senate winner?
Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 59% · -1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 48 17% · +1.0 24h
Texas Governor winner?
Kalshi · Greg Abbott 77% · -4.0 24h
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?
Polymarket · December 31 26% · -5.5 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 64%
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 97% · +3.9 24h
Nevada Governor winner?
Kalshi · Aaron Ford 52%
Maine Senate winner?
Kalshi · Troy Jackson 57%
Texas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 62% · -1.0 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 26%
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 35% · -1.0 24h
What will Trump say during his rally in Georgia?
Kalshi · Oil / Gas / Gasoline 99% · +4.0 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · James Talarico, 1+ pts 56% · +2.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 81% · +2.4 24h
MN-05 House winner?
Kalshi · Ilhan Omar 94%
Nevada Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Aaron Ford (D) 53% · -1.5 24h
Ohio Senate winner?
Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 60%
Trump's approval rating on Oct 16, 2026?
Kalshi · Above 38.7 42% · +19.0 24h
FL-25 House winner?
Kalshi · Jared Moskowitz 79% · +4.0 24h
Mississippi Senate winner?
Kalshi · Cindy Hyde-Smith 90% · -1.9 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Polymarket · Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 55%
New York Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Kathy Hochul (D) 94% · -1.0 24h
NY-23 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Nick Langworthy (R) 97% · +1.2 24h
What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Montana?
Polymarket · Job 13+ times 100% · +37.0 24h
MN-06 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Tom Emmer (R) 95%
Maine Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 60%
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Polymarket · Oil ≥ $85; D Senate 52%
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 84%
PA-16 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Mike Kelly (R) 96% · +1.1 24h
Minnesota Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Peggy Flanagan (D) 88%
Ohio Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Amy Acton (D) 72%
The Money Talks —
The House Is Already Slipping Away From Republicans
Get an alert when Us 2026 Midterms moves.
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