U.S.

Barlow Will Win Wyoming's Governorship by at Least 37 Points

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Wyoming Governor margin of victory”

virtually certain (100%)
Leading outcome Barlow, 37+ pts 100% Virtually certain · C unlikely → virtually certain
24h move ▲ 46.9 pts Barlow, 37+ pts
Traded 24h $178K $190K all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03

Where the money stands

Barlow, 37+ pts 100% ▲ 46.9
Barlow, 25+ pts 100% ▲ 10.8
Barlow, 22+ pts 100% ▲ 4.3
Barlow, 34+ pts 100% ▲ 30.6
Barlow, 19+ pts 100% ▲ 3.7
Barlow, 28+ pts 99% ▲ 7.6
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. 56 on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Flip the Senate and Hold 56 Seats

56: very likely (90%)

What was written off as a long shot yesterday is now the dominant expectation — a 56-seat Democratic Senate would represent a historic wave, with Mississippi falling alongside Alaska, Texas, and a string of seats long held by Republicans. The conviction shift is dramatic but the market has whipsawed before; treat it as a strong signal, not a sealed verdict.

Updated 9:45 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $3.2M markets read 50 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 28 days range 88% (0d ago) – 30% (1d ago) trending in today's news unlikely → likely 3 tier changes venues disagree 21.8pp
U.S. all but decided

Nithya Raman Is Virtually Certain to Win the Los Angeles Mayor's Race

Nithya Raman: virtually certain (98%)

Karen Bass's collapse from frontrunner to afterthought is now complete — what had been a contested race has resolved into a near-foregone conclusion, though a market that has crossed conviction rungs eight times warrants at least a footnote of caution.

Updated 7:34 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $19.2M markets read 2 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 99 days range 98% (0d ago) – 50% (16d ago) 9 tier changes venues agree
U.S.

Alito Is Unlikely to Announce Retirement by Mid-2027

probably not (34%)

What had been a coin flip just nineteen days ago is now leaning against a departure, with conviction falling sharply after what appears to have been a brief window of speculation. Absent a new trigger, the Republican-appointed justice looks set to remain on the Court through the near-term horizon — though this market's history of reversals means the door is not closed.

Updated 6:20 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $177K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 94 days range 59% (20d ago) – 28% (87d ago) a coin flip → probably not 6 tier changes