U.S.Rob Sand (D) on track to win

Rob Sand Is Likely to Flip Iowa's Governor's Mansion for Democrats

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Iowa Governor Election Winner”

Rob Sand (D): likely (88%)
Leading outcome Rob Sand (D) 88% Likely · B venues disagree 3.5pp
24h move ▲ 4.0 pts Rob Sand (D)
Traded 24h $13K $125K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04
Source markets 7 7 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Rob Sand (D) 88% ▲ 4.0
Zach Lahn (R) 12% ▼ 2.0

Source markets for this story

Los Angeles Mayor winner? Kalshi · Nithya Raman 60% · -2.0 24h
California Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Xavier Becerra 96% · -0.5 24h
Texas Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Greg Abbott (R) 73% · -1.5 24h
Los Angeles Mayoral Election Polymarket · Nithya Raman 59% · -2.8 24h
New York Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Kathy Hochul (D) 96% · +1.0 24h
Arizona Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Katie Hobbs (D) 92% · +3.5 24h
Iowa Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Rob Sand (D) 88% · +4.0 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Retake the House in 2026

Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $345K markets read 23 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 68 days range 94% (1d ago) – 86% (62d ago) trending in today's news 5 tier changes venues disagree 27.4pp
U.S. wide open

Vance Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Presidential Race at Just 21%

JD Vance: unlikely (21%)

No candidate commands real authority in this field: Vance holds the Republican nomination at roughly even odds but converts that to only a 21% general-election share, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff crowd the Democratic lane — a genuinely fragmented race with no prohibitive favorite on either side.

Updated 6:42 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $862K markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 68 days range 25% (32d ago) – 20% (65d ago) trending in today's news venues disagree 31.2pp
U.S. odds favor Greg Abbott (R)

Greg Abbott Likely Holds Texas, but Gina Hinojosa Is Closing

Greg Abbott (R): likely (75%)

Republican dominance in Texas is eroding to its weakest reading on record, mirroring a national pattern where Georgia and Nevada governor races have also tightened — the midterm environment is squeezing incumbents across the Sun Belt.

Updated 4:49 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $50K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 40 days range 86% (39d ago) – 74% (0d ago) trending in today's news venues disagree 3.5pp