U.S.

Sonora Cattle Import Suspension Is Likely Short-Lived

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “How many days will U.S. cattle imports from Sonora be suspended?”

unlikely (20%)
Leading outcome 90 days or more 20% Unlikely · C
24h move 0.0 pts 90 days or more
Traded 24h $100K $100K all time
Resolves by 2027-04-01

Where the money stands

90 days or more 20% 0.0
30 days or more 12% 0.0
60 days or more 8% 0.0
120 days or more 2% 0.0
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U.S.

Susie Wiles and Stephen Miller Are Both Likely Gone From the White House This Year

virtually certain (100%)

What had been an unlikely scenario is now virtually certain for Wiles and near-certain for Miller — but a market that has crossed conviction rungs ten times demands caution. The broader picture is of an administration shedding senior figures at scale, while impeachment odds hover above 57% and Trump's own departure remains a distant tail risk at 3%.

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Democrats Are Likely Headed for a 14-to-16-Point House Popular Vote Win

Democrats, 14 to 16%: likely (80%)

A rout of this magnitude, combined with near-certain Democratic gains to 56 Senate seats and Hakeem Jeffries very likely becoming Speaker, would amount to a wholesale electoral repudiation — though a market that has crossed conviction rungs seven times warrants caution about treating today's reading as settled.

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U.S. 56 on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Flip the Senate and Hold 56 Seats

56: very likely (90%)

What was written off as a long shot yesterday is now the dominant expectation — a 56-seat Democratic Senate would represent a historic wave, with Mississippi falling alongside Alaska, Texas, and a string of seats long held by Republicans. The conviction shift is dramatic but the market has whipsawed before; treat it as a strong signal, not a sealed verdict.

Updated 9:45 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $3.2M markets read 9 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 30 days range 91% (0d ago) – 30% (3d ago) trending in today's news 4 tier changes venues disagree 7.0pp