U.S.Nick Begich III on track to win

Nick Begich III Likely Holds Alaska's House Seat, but His Grip Has Loosened

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Alaska House winner?”

Nick Begich III: likely (88%)
Leading outcome Nick Begich III 88% Likely · Stable · C · tracked 5 days peak 94% (2d ago) · low 85% (3d ago) very likely → likely 2 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 7.4 pts Nick Begich III
Traded 24h $59K $492K all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03

Where the money stands

Nick Begich III 88% ▼ 7.4
Bill Hill 10% ▲ 7.0
Eric Hafner 1% 0.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. 56 on track to win

Democrats Are Likely Headed for 56 Senate Seats After the Midterms

56: likely (87%)

What had been a very likely call is now merely likely — and this market has swung wildly enough that even that reading deserves skepticism. The near-certain Democratic wins in Alaska and Mississippi are locked in, but the precise final count remains genuinely unsettled, with the 57-seat outcome gaining ground at the expense of 56.

Updated 5:41 PM ET ▼ down overnight
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traded today $445K markets read 10 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 31 days range 91% (1d ago) – 30% (4d ago) trending in today's news 5 tier changes venues agree
U.S. Raymond Smith Jr. on track to win

Raymond Smith Jr. Is Likely to Win North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District

Raymond Smith Jr.: likely (81%)

A Republican-held seat trending toward a Democratic pickup is a meaningful signal about the broader 2026 political environment — Smith's position has strengthened from a toss-up just days ago to a clear lean, and both related markets now agree on that conclusion.

Updated 11:46 AM ET ▲ up overnight
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traded today $1.4M venue Kalshi grade B tracked 15 days range 85% (0d ago) – 55% (7d ago)
U.S.

Stephen Miller Is Very Likely to Leave His Role Before 2027

very likely (97%)

What had been likely is now very likely — but the more revealing signal is below Miller: Will Scharf surged 20 points in a day, Amy Gleason sits at 51%, and several other deputies hover near coin-flip territory, suggesting a broader wave of mid-tier departures is building across the administration before year-end.

Updated 10:37 PM ET ▲ drifting up for days
the numbers
traded today $503K markets read 2 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 98 days range 100% (1d ago) – 31% (63d ago) trending in today's news likely → very likely 11 tier changes venues disagree 16.5pp