U.S.

Howard Lutnick Probably Stays as Commerce Secretary Through Year-End

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?”

probably not (30%)
Leading outcome Yes 30% Probably not · D unlikely → probably not
24h move ▲ 7.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $14K $42K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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U.S.

Lutnick's Grip on His Post Looks Shaky After a Sudden Reprice

probably not (32%)

What was an unlikely exit scenario is now merely probable he stays — a meaningful shift that puts Lutnick closer to the cabinet's most vulnerable tier, though a market this volatile can reverse quickly.

Updated 7:56 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $48K markets read 8 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 93 days range 100% (92d ago) – 24% (1d ago) trending in today's news unlikely → probably not 6 tier changes venues disagree 9.5pp
U.S. wide open

Jon Ossoff Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Democratic Field

Jon Ossoff: unlikely (24%)

His edge is thin and slipping — what had been a 'probably not' read is now 'unlikely' territory after a further dip, and a market asking whether someone else leads by November is already at 61%. The nomination is genuinely anyone's race, with Ossoff's lead reflecting name recognition and Senate profile rather than consolidating strength.

Updated 9:50 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $6.3M markets read 7 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 106 days range 26% (0d ago) – 14% (24d ago) 5 tier changes venues disagree 18.9pp
U.S.

Trump's Impeachment Before 2028 Is an Even-Money Bet Tilting Slightly Toward Yes

leaning yes (59%)

The timeline is narrowing even as the overall probability dips — the fall in near-term windows suggests a House majority sees no urgent trigger today, but the expectation of impeachment sometime before the end of this term remains the modest plurality view, pulled back from a peak of 75% just three days ago.

Updated 6:03 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $265K venue Kalshi grade C tracked 105 days range 75% (8d ago) – 53% (91d ago) trending in today's news 4 tier changes