U.S.Jonathan Nez on track to win

Jonathan Nez Is Likely to Flip Arizona's Second Congressional District

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “AZ-02 House winner?”

Jonathan Nez: likely (77%)
Resolved The money put Jonathan Nez at 77% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Jonathan Nez 77% Likely · C
24h move ▲ 34.0 pts Jonathan Nez
Traded 24h $135K $342K all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03

Where the money stands

Jonathan Nez 77% ▲ 34.0
Eli Crane 21% ▼ 36.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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Democrats Sweep: virtually certain (99%)

A Democratic sweep — Senate and House together — has gone from likely to virtually certain overnight, a conviction-tier jump that makes split-chamber scenarios functionally dead; the residual risk is not Republican resilience but the volatility that has already whipsawed this market three times.

Updated 9:34 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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Nithya Raman: very likely (94%)

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Updated 12:04 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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traded today $11.0M venue Kalshi grade B tracked 98 days range 68% (79d ago) – 50% (15d ago) 8 tier changes
U.S.

California's Billionaire Wealth Tax Is Very Unlikely to Pass

very unlikely (8%)

What had been a long-shot proposition has collapsed into a near-certainty of failure — the initiative's path to a 2026 ballot majority looks all but closed, with both related markets now below 10% after shedding roughly 15 points in a single session.

Updated 11:15 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
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traded today $91K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 83 days range 34% (81d ago) – 21% (10d ago) resolves today unlikely → very unlikely 4 tier changes