Tom Cotton Is Very Likely to Hold Arkansas's Senate Seat
Source: Polymarket market “Arkansas Senate Election Winner”
Tom Cotton (R): very likely (95%)
Leading outcome
Tom Cotton (R) 95%
Very likely · B
venues disagree 19.6pp
24h move
▼
0.7 pts
Tom Cotton (R)
Traded 24h
$27K
$96K all time
Resolves by
2026-11-04
Source markets
58
58 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Tom Cotton (R)
95%
▼
0.7
Hallie Shoffner (D)
5%
▲
0.7
Source markets for this story
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Kalshi · Democrats sweep 69% · +3.0 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 68% · +3.0 24h
Texas Senate winner?
Kalshi · James Talarico 68% · +3.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 91%
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 92% · +1.0 24h
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Kalshi · Nithya Raman 51% · +7.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 68% · +3.0 24h
Texas Governor winner?
Kalshi · Greg Abbott 65% · -5.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 41% · +4.0 24h
Nebraska Senate winner?
Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 73%
Idaho Senate winner?
Kalshi · Jim Risch 94% · -0.7 24h
South Carolina Senate winner?
Kalshi · Darline Graham 82% · -1.0 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 68% · +3.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 70% · +1.0 24h
Minnesota Senate winner?
Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 87%
Ohio Governor winner?
Kalshi · Amy Acton 80% · +3.0 24h
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Polymarket · Nithya Raman 52% · +8.1 24h
TX-15 House winner?
Kalshi · Bobby Pulido 87% · -2.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 73% · -1.9 24h
Ohio Senate winner?
Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 69% · +3.0 24h
Georgia Governor winner?
Kalshi · Keisha Lance Bottoms 61% · +8.0 24h
Idaho Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Jim Risch (R) 96% · +0.7 24h
Ohio Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Amy Acton (D) 80% · +2.0 24h
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · Roger Marshall 61%
Maine Senate winner?
Kalshi · Troy Jackson 66% · +3.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 48 21% · -2.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo
Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 56% · +2.0 24h
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Roger Marshall (R) 62% · +1.0 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 98% · +1.1 24h
MT-01 House winner?
Kalshi · Aaron Flint 57% · -6.0 24h
FL-14 House winner?
Kalshi · Kathy Castor 70% · +2.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner?
Kalshi · Democratic party 76% · +1.0 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 25% · -2.0 24h
Florida Senate winner?
Kalshi · Ashley Moody 90%
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 70%
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes)
Kalshi · Below 53 62% · +1.0 24h
MN-05 House winner?
Kalshi · Ilhan Omar 95% · +2.3 24h
VA-05 House winner?
Kalshi · John McGuire 62% · -5.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 70%
NC-11 House winner?
Kalshi · Jamie Ager 82%
MO-02 House winner?
Kalshi · Ann Wagner 65% · -9.0 24h
Maine Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 66% · +1.0 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Polymarket · Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 65% · +2.4 24h
VA-05 House Election Winner
Polymarket · John McGuire (R) 62% · -4.5 24h
Texas Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Greg Abbott (R) 65% · -3.8 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Polymarket · Oil ≥ $85; D Senate 61% · +1.1 24h
Alaska Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 88% · +9.3 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 89% · +0.9 24h
OH-15 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Mike Carey (R) 62% · -5.0 24h
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 70%
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 97% · +2.3 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · ≤47 42% · +2.0 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 82%
MO-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Ann Wagner (R) 65% · -9.5 24h
NC-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Richard Hudson (R) 78% · -3.0 24h
California Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Xavier Becerra 97%
Arkansas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Tom Cotton (R) 95% · -0.7 24h
FL-14 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Kathy Castor (D) 68% · -1.0 24h
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