U.S.

Karoline Leavitt's Replacement Is Likely Coming by Year-End

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Next Press Secretary announced by...?”

likely (80%)
Leading outcome December 31 80% Likely · B venues disagree 20.7pp
24h move ▼ 7.0 pts December 31
Traded 24h $245K $248K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 4 4 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

December 31 80% ▼ 7.0
November 30 60% 0.0
October 31 18% ▼ 6.0

Source markets for this story

Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary? Kalshi · Scott Jennings 19% · +2.0 24h
Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2027 99%
Next Press Secretary announced by...? Polymarket · December 31 80% · -7.0 24h
Next Press Secretary? Polymarket · Scott Jennings 18% · +1.0 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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U.S. odds favor Oil ≥ $85; D Senate

High Oil Prices Now Favor Democrats Retaking the Senate

Oil ≥ $85; D Senate: leaning yes (59%)

The ceasefire holding and the Hormuz blockade remaining unresolved without a deal lock in elevated energy prices through the midterms — and that environment, which had been a coin flip for Democrats, now leans in their favor. Republicans retain a meaningful 30% shot only if oil stays high, meaning neither party escapes the geopolitical energy trap.

Updated 3:56 AM ET ▲ up overnight
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traded today $274K markets read 8 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 5 days trending in today's news a coin flip → leaning yes venues disagree 26.5pp
U.S. odds favor Democratic Party

Democrats Increasingly Favored to Retake the Senate

Democratic Party: leaning yes (64%)

With Ohio and Texas both leaning Democratic and the House already near-certain to flip, the money now prices a full Democratic sweep of Congress at 61% — a unified opposition government that would reshape the final two years of any Republican White House agenda.

Updated 5:34 PM ET ▲ up overnight
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traded today $130K markets read 17 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 79 days range 68% (12d ago) – 50% (54d ago) trending in today's news 2 tier changes venues agree
U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Retake the House in 2026

Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $345K markets read 11 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 80 days range 94% (13d ago) – 86% (74d ago) trending in today's news 5 tier changes venues agree