U.S.all but decided

Tommy Tuberville Is Virtually Certain to Win Alabama's Governorship

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Alabama Governor winner?”

Tommy Tuberville: virtually certain (99%)
Resolved The money put Tommy Tuberville at 99% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Tommy Tuberville 99% Virtually certain · Stable · B · tracked 4 days
24h move ▲ 6.7 pts Tommy Tuberville
Traded 24h $1.6M $2.2M all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03

Where the money stands

Tommy Tuberville 99% ▲ 6.7
Doug Jones 0% ▼ 8.1
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. all but decided

Democrats Are All but Certain to Sweep Both Chambers in 2026

Democrats Sweep: virtually certain (99%)

A Democratic sweep — Senate and House together — has gone from likely to virtually certain overnight, a conviction-tier jump that makes split-chamber scenarios functionally dead; the residual risk is not Republican resilience but the volatility that has already whipsawed this market three times.

Updated 9:34 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $11.1M markets read 132 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 98 days range 88% (0d ago) – 44% (96d ago) resolves today likely → virtually certain 3 tier changes venues disagree 19.1pp
U.S. Nithya Raman on track to win

Nithya Raman Is Very Likely the Next Mayor of Los Angeles

Nithya Raman: very likely (94%)

Karen Bass's collapse — from frontrunner to a 6% afterthought — represents one of the sharpest single-day reversals in this race, which has repriced dramatically eight times. Raman's rise to 94% suggests something decisive has shifted in how informed money reads this contest, though the market's volatility means the story isn't fully closed.

Updated 12:04 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $11.0M venue Kalshi grade B tracked 98 days range 68% (79d ago) – 50% (15d ago) 8 tier changes
U.S.

California's Billionaire Wealth Tax Is Very Unlikely to Pass

very unlikely (8%)

What had been a long-shot proposition has collapsed into a near-certainty of failure — the initiative's path to a 2026 ballot majority looks all but closed, with both related markets now below 10% after shedding roughly 15 points in a single session.

Updated 11:15 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $91K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 83 days range 34% (81d ago) – 21% (10d ago) resolves today unlikely → very unlikely 4 tier changes