U.S.

Hormuz Traffic Is Very Likely to Stay Open Through Mid-October

Source: Kalshi market “Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)”

very likely (97%)
Leading outcome Above 10 97% Very likely · B likely → very likely venues disagree 82.8pp
24h move ▲ 1.0 pts Above 10
Traded 24h $58K $166K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-13 in 6 days
Source markets 18 18 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Above 10 97% ▲ 1.0
Above 15 92% 0.0
Above 20 75% ▼ 1.0
Above 25 40% ▲ 8.0
Above 30 12% ▲ 2.0
Above 35 7% ▲ 2.0

Source markets for this story

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · March 31 72% · -1.0 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 5 100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 16% · +0.5 24h
Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 88%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · October 9 98% · +1.9 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 14% · +1.0 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6% · +1.0 24h
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11) Kalshi · Above 10 97% · +1.0 24h
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 22%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jul 1, 2028 68% · +2.0 24h
Will Iran target an Arab country by...? Polymarket · September 30 100%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 37% · +1.5 24h
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 46% · -2.0 24h
Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 24% · +3.0 24h
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