Hormuz Traffic Is Very Likely to Stay Open Through Mid-October
Source: Kalshi market “Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)”
very likely (97%)
Leading outcome
Above 10 97%
Very likely · B
likely → very likely
venues disagree 82.8pp
24h move
▲
1.0 pts
Above 10
Traded 24h
$58K
$166K all time
Resolves by
2026-10-13
in 6 days
Source markets
18
18 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Above 10
97%
▲
1.0
Above 15
92%
0.0
Above 20
75%
▼
1.0
Above 25
40%
▲
8.0
Above 30
12%
▲
2.0
Above 35
7%
▲
2.0
Source markets for this story
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Polymarket · March 31 72% · -1.0 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · October 5 100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 16% · +0.5 24h
Iran leader end of 2026?
Polymarket · Mojtaba Khamenei 88%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Polymarket · October 9 98% · +1.9 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Polymarket · December 31 14% · +1.0 24h
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
Polymarket · Yes 10% · +2.0 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Polymarket · December 31 6% · +1.0 24h
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)
Kalshi · Above 10 97% · +1.0 24h
Iran leadership change by...?
Polymarket · June 30, 2027 22%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Kalshi · Before Jul 1, 2028 68% · +2.0 24h
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
Polymarket · September 30 100%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Polymarket · December 31 37% · +1.5 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket · Yes 18% · -1.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Polymarket · Yes 2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Polymarket · Yes 6%
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
Polymarket · December 31, 2026 46% · -2.0 24h
Iran full airspace closure by...?
Polymarket · December 31 24% · +3.0 24h
The Money Talks —
The US-Iran Diplomatic Calendar Probably Has Room for One More Meeting
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