U.S.Jim Risch on track to win

Jim Risch Is Very Likely to Hold Idaho's Senate Seat for Republicans

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Idaho Senate winner?”

Jim Risch: very likely (96%)
Resolved The money put Jim Risch at 96% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Jim Risch 96% Very likely · Stable · C · tracked 43 days
24h move ▲ 0.7 pts Jim Risch
Traded 24h $84K $1.1M all time
Resolves by 2027-11-03

Where the money stands

Jim Risch 96% ▲ 0.7
Todd Achilles 6% ▼ 1.0
David Roth 0% 0.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. leaning ≤47

Republicans Are Now Even-Money to Lose Senate Seats and Fall to 47 or Fewer

≤47: a coin flip (50%)

What had been a remote scenario is now a coin flip: a Democratic sweep of both chambers looks increasingly plausible, with the Texas Senate race — priced at 73% Democratic — emerging as the pivotal domino that could flip the majority.

Updated 12:28 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $108K markets read 94 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 86 days range 44% (7d ago) – 24% (84d ago) resolves in 4 days trending in today's news probably not → a coin flip venues disagree 10.8pp
U.S. odds favor Ashley Hinson (R)

Iowa Senate Race Is a Dead Heat

Ashley Hinson (R): a coin flip (52%)

What looked like a safe Republican hold has become genuinely competitive — Ashley Hinson's edge has narrowed to a coin flip, and with the race volatile enough to have crossed conviction tiers twice, neither party can count on Iowa in 2026.

Updated 2:23 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $50K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 75 days range 62% (41d ago) – 50% (37d ago) resolves in 5 days trending in today's news a coin flip → leaning yes 3 tier changes