Republicans Are Set to Lose Senate Seats — the Majority May Not Hold
Source: Polymarket market “Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?”
≤47: probably not (40%)
Leading outcome
≤47 40%
Probably not · Rising · B · tracked 82 days
peak 44% (3d ago) · low 24% (80d ago)
venues disagree 23.6pp
24h move
▼
0.5 pts
≤47
Traded 24h
$273K
$3.7M all time
Resolves by
2026-11-03
Source markets
61
61 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
≤47
40%
▼
0.5
48
16%
▼
2.0
49
12%
0.0
50
11%
▼
0.5
51
10%
▲
2.0
53
7%
▲
2.0
Source markets for this story
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Polymarket · Democratic Party 92% · +1.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 90%
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Kalshi · Democrats sweep 64% · -1.0 24h
Texas Senate winner?
Kalshi · James Talarico 65%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 66% · -1.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
Kalshi · Democratic Party 63% · -1.0 24h
Minnesota Senate winner?
Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 85% · +1.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 64% · +2.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner?
Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 67% · -2.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner?
Kalshi · Democratic party 76% · +1.0 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Polymarket · ≤47 40% · -0.5 24h
TX-15 House winner?
Kalshi · Bobby Pulido 83% · -4.0 24h
Texas Governor winner?
Kalshi · Greg Abbott 68%
Maine Senate winner?
Kalshi · Troy Jackson 61% · -1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · Above 52 39% · +2.0 24h
Georgia Senate winner?
Kalshi · Jon Ossoff 94% · -1.8 24h
New York Governor winner?
Kalshi · Kathy Hochul 94% · -0.7 24h
Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
Polymarket · Lula, Eizenkot, Dems 46% · +36.0 24h
Kansas Senate winner?
Kalshi · Roger Marshall 61%
Nebraska Senate winner?
Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 74% · -2.0 24h
South Carolina Senate winner?
Kalshi · Darline Graham 80%
Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Kalshi · Nithya Raman 57% · +2.0 24h
Ohio Senate winner?
Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 68% · -1.0 24h
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 68% · -4.5 24h
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Polymarket · Nithya Raman 54% · -0.5 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 68% · +1.0 24h
MN-05 House winner?
Kalshi · Ilhan Omar 94%
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 48 18% · -2.0 24h
New York Attorney General winner?
Kalshi · Letitia James 90% · -1.6 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 64% · -6.5 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 93% · +1.5 24h
California Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Xavier Becerra 97%
Blue wave in 2026?
Kalshi · Yes 83% · +1.0 24h
Ohio Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Amy Acton (D) 84% · +1.5 24h
FL-25 House winner?
Kalshi · Jared Moskowitz 83% · -2.0 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory
Kalshi · Ken Paxton, 1+ pts 34% · -1.0 24h
NC-09 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Richard Hudson (R) 68% · -5.0 24h
NC-13 House winner?
Kalshi · Brad Knott 72% · -9.0 24h
WA-03 House winner?
Kalshi · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 91% · -0.7 24h
NY-03 House winner?
Kalshi · Tom Suozzi 92%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 26%
Iowa Governor winner?
Kalshi · Rob Sand 84% · -3.0 24h
Florida Governor winner?
Kalshi · Byron Donalds 79% · -3.0 24h
Closest Senate race in 2026?
Kalshi · Iowa 18% · +2.0 24h
Georgia Governor winner?
Kalshi · Keisha Lance Bottoms 60% · +1.0 24h
NC-03 House winner?
Kalshi · Greg Murphy 67% · -5.0 24h
NJ-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jeff Van Drew (R) 80% · +0.5 24h
Florida Senate winner?
Kalshi · Ashley Moody 88% · -2.0 24h
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 72% · -1.5 24h
Maine Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 60% · -3.5 24h
FL-25 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Jared Moskowitz (D) 81% · -3.5 24h
Nevada Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Aaron Ford (D) 68% · +0.5 24h
Texas Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Greg Abbott (R) 69% · -0.7 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Mary Peltola 74% · -1.0 24h
Kansas Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Roger Marshall (R) 62%
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Polymarket · Yes 98% · -0.5 24h
Iowa Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Rob Sand (D) 86% · -2.0 24h
MT-01 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Aaron Flint (R) 55%
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 80%
PA-10 House Election Winner
Polymarket · Janelle Stelson (D) 79% · -4.0 24h
Tennessee Governor Election Winner
Polymarket · Marsha Blackburn (R) 93% · -1.1 24h
The Money Talks —
The House Is Already Slipping Away From Republicans
Get an alert when Us 2026 Midterms moves.
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