U.S.Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Likely to Hold More Governorships After the Midterms

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?”

Democratic Party: likely (85%)
Leading outcome Democratic Party 85% Likely · C venues disagree 9.8pp
24h move ▼ 1.0 pts Democratic Party
Traded 24h $17K $35K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04 in 3 days
Source markets 94 94 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Democratic Party 85% ▼ 1.0
Republican Party 10% ▲ 2.5
Tie 4% ▼ 0.6

Source markets for this story

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? Polymarket · None 24%
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 71% · +1.0 24h
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 70%
Who will control the House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 93%
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 94%
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 78% · +4.0 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 70%
Who will control the Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 71%
Texas Governor winner? Kalshi · Greg Abbott 68% · +3.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 77% · +5.0 24h
Nebraska Senate winner? Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 75% · +8.0 24h
California Governor winner? (Person) Kalshi · Xavier Becerra 97%
Florida Governor winner? Kalshi · Byron Donalds 65% · -1.0 24h
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 74% · +6.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 48%
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 70% · -1.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner? Kalshi · Democratic party 71% · +1.0 24h
Ohio Governor winner? Kalshi · Amy Acton 80%
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi · Troy Jackson 68%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 72% · +1.0 24h
Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Hinson (R) 57% · +3.0 24h
New York Governor winner? Kalshi · Kathy Hochul 96%
South Carolina Senate winner? Kalshi · Darline Graham 72% · -1.0 24h
Nevada Governor winner? Kalshi · Aaron Ford 76% · +2.0 24h
Kansas Senate winner? Kalshi · Roger Marshall 50% · +1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 47 14%
California Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Xavier Becerra 98%
Florida Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Byron Donalds (R) 64% · +1.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 59% · +1.0 24h
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 54% · -3.2 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 100% · +2.6 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 74% · +2.0 24h
Texas Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Greg Abbott (R) 66% · +2.1 24h
NC-13 House winner? Kalshi · Brad Knott 60% · -9.0 24h
NC-13 House Election Winner Polymarket · Brad Knott (R) 57% · -11.5 24h
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 55% · -2.0 24h
Ohio Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Amy Acton (D) 82%
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) Kalshi · Below 53 52%
Los Angeles Mayor winner? Kalshi · Karen Bass 58% · -1.0 24h
Blue wave in 2026? Kalshi · Yes 84%
Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · James Talarico, 0.5+ pts 66%
Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Ken Paxton, 0.5+ pts 32%
NC-03 House winner? Kalshi · Greg Murphy 56% · -5.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 75%
Texas Governor-Senate combo Kalshi · Greg Abbott and James Talarico win 43% · +3.0 24h
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 72% · +1.0 24h
Georgia Governor winner? Kalshi · Keisha Lance Bottoms 68% · +3.0 24h
Kansas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Adam Hamilton (D) 52% · -0.5 24h
Mississippi Senate winner? Kalshi · Cindy Hyde-Smith 89%
VA-05 House winner? Kalshi · John McGuire 65% · +6.0 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 30% · +2.0 24h
Iowa Governor winner? Kalshi · Rob Sand 84% · -1.0 24h
Florida Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Moody (R) 92% · +1.0 24h
North Carolina Senate margin of victory Kalshi · Cooper, 2+ pts 97% · -0.7 24h
OH-09 House winner? Kalshi · Marcy Kaptur 82% · +2.0 24h
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket · Below 190 36% · -4.0 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mary Peltola 72% · +1.5 24h
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Polymarket · Yes 99%
Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi · Iowa 14% · -2.0 24h
Arizona Governor winner? Kalshi · Katie Hobbs 91%
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket · ≤47 48% · -1.0 24h
Nevada Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Aaron Ford (D) 78% · +2.0 24h
Idaho Senate winner? Kalshi · Jim Risch 95% · -0.7 24h
NC-09 House winner? Kalshi · Richard Hudson 67% · -2.0 24h
NC-14 House winner? Kalshi · Tim Moore 76% · -2.0 24h
Montana Senate winner? Kalshi · Kurt Alme 89%
Louisiana Senate winner? Kalshi · Julia Letlow 90%
New Hampshire Senate winner? Kalshi · Chris Pappas 93% · +0.7 24h
NC-03 House Election Winner Polymarket · Greg Murphy (R) 55% · -4.0 24h
TX-23 House winner? Kalshi · Brandon Herrera 54%
Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 70% · +1.0 24h
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? Kalshi · Yes 26% · +2.0 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 74% · +2.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi · Mary Peltola 70% · +3.0 24h
Blue tsunami in 2026? Kalshi · Yes 64% · +3.0 24h
Michigan Senate margin of victory Kalshi · El-Sayed, 1+ pts 75% · +2.0 24h
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner Polymarket · David Crowley (D) 86% · +2.0 24h
Montana Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Kurt Alme (R) 90% · +1.5 24h
Minnesota Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Peggy Flanagan (D) 93% · +0.5 24h
Arizona Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Katie Hobbs (D) 93% · +0.5 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 92% · -0.7 24h
NC-09 House Election Winner Polymarket · Richard Hudson (R) 66% · -2.0 24h
Idaho Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Jim Risch (R) 96%
FL-09 House Election Winner Polymarket · Dan Green (R) 63% · +1.5 24h
South Dakota Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mike Rounds (R) 94%
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory Polymarket · Talarico 0-3% 28% · +7.5 24h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Polymarket · Yes 26% · +2.0 24h
New York Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Kathy Hochul (D) 98% · +0.5 24h
Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round) Polymarket · Ossoff 12-15% 28% · -7.0 24h
Georgia Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 70% · +5.0 24h
NC-11 House Election Winner Polymarket · Jamie Ager (D) 84% · -1.0 24h
Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms? Polymarket · Democratic Party 85% · -1.0 24h
AZ-01 House Election Winner Polymarket · Amish Shah (D) 80% · -4.5 24h
Los Angeles Mayoral Election Polymarket · Karen Bass 56% · -1.0 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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