U.S.Michael Baumgartner (R) on track to win

Michael Baumgartner Is Likely to Hold WA-05 for Republicans

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “WA-05 House Election Winner”

Michael Baumgartner (R): likely (88%)
Leading outcome Michael Baumgartner (R) 88% Likely · A · tracked 52 days very likely → likely venues agree
24h move ▲ 4.0 pts Michael Baumgartner (R)
Traded 24h $21K $83K all time
Resolves by 2026-11-04
Source markets 45 45 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Michael Baumgartner (R) 88% ▲ 4.0
Carmela Conroy (D) 11% ▼ 4.4

Source markets for this story

Which party will win the U.S. House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 90%
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 62% · +1.0 24h
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 62%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 62%
Los Angeles Mayor winner? Kalshi · Nithya Raman 53% · -1.0 24h
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 90%
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 56% · -2.0 24h
New York Governor winner? Kalshi · Kathy Hochul 94%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 64%
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 68% · -1.0 24h
Minnesota Senate winner? Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 86% · -2.0 24h
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 63%
South Carolina Senate winner? Kalshi · Darline Graham 85% · -1.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 47%
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 65% · +4.0 24h
New Hampshire Senate winner? Kalshi · Chris Pappas 90% · +1.0 24h
Montana Senate winner? Kalshi · Kurt Alme 91%
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 62%
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 34% · -2.0 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 66% · +4.0 24h
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi · Troy Jackson 57%
Blue wave in 2026? Kalshi · Yes 79% · -1.0 24h
Bitcoin above ___ on October 18? Polymarket · 74,000 100%
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 70% · +1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 47 15%
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 79% · +2.2 24h
Massachusetts Governor winner? Kalshi · Maura Healey 95% · -1.0 24h
AL-02 House winner? Kalshi · Rhett Marques 73% · +2.0 24h
How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 218+ Democratic seats 100% · +0.9 24h
MN-05 House winner? Kalshi · Ilhan Omar 94% · +0.9 24h
NC-01 House winner? Kalshi · Don Davis 66% · -1.0 24h
California Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Xavier Becerra 96%
Los Angeles Mayoral Election Polymarket · Nithya Raman 53% · -2.2 24h
Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo Polymarket · Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems 34% · -3.0 24h
Idaho Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Jim Risch (R) 96% · +0.5 24h
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Chris Pappas (D) 90% · +2.0 24h
Arizona Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Katie Hobbs (D) 92% · +3.5 24h
CA-06 House Election Winner Polymarket · Democratic Party 97% · +1.7 24h
WA-05 House Election Winner Polymarket · Michael Baumgartner (R) 88% · +4.0 24h
AL-02 House Election Winner Polymarket · Rhett Marques (R) 70% · +1.5 24h
Michigan Governor Election Winner Polymarket · Jocelyn Benson (D) 96% · +0.6 24h
TN-04 House Election Winner Polymarket · Scott DesJarlais (R) 97% · +1.4 24h
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 58% · +15.0 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mary Peltola 74%
OH-07 House Election Winner Polymarket · Brian Poindexter (D) 83% · +2.5 24h
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

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