Curiosities

China Is Unlikely to Imprison Zhang Youxia Before 2027

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?”

unlikely (18%)
Leading outcome Yes 18% Unlikely · C very unlikely → unlikely
24h move ▲ 7.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $39K $207K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from Curiosities

Curiosities

Trump Is Very Likely to Mention Iran at the UN General Assembly

very likely (97%)

That Iran tops the list — ahead of oil, nuclear, China, and tariffs — reveals where real money thinks his priorities actually lie, whatever the public agenda says; the fact that people are betting on a presidential speech word-by-word is its own testament to how thoroughly Trump's unpredictability has become a tradeable asset.

Updated 11:50 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $87K venue Kalshi grade C trending in today's news likely → very likely
Curiosities leaning 0

AI Solving a Millennium Prize Problem This Year Is Now the Likelier Outcome

0: probably not (44%)

What had been a coin flip five days ago has slipped back toward 'probably not' — yet the money still leans toward at least one solution, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether AI's mathematical capabilities have crossed a historic threshold. This market has reversed conviction three times, signaling that no one really knows.

Updated 8:34 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $15K markets read 3 venue Polymarket grade C tracked 12 days range 50% (5d ago) – 34% (9d ago) trending in today's news probably not → a coin flip 3 tier changes
Curiosities

Anthropic Is Very Likely to IPO Before OpenAI

very likely (91%)

The gap between the two firms' public profiles and their IPO sequencing odds is the real signal — OpenAI commands far more press attention, but the money says Anthropic crosses the public-markets threshold first, with OpenAI's own odds languishing in single digits.

Updated 7:39 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $3K markets read 5 venue Kalshi grade C tracked 7 days range 93% (1d ago) – 88% (0d ago) venues disagree 34.8pp AI IPO beat