Ariel Pakes Leads a Wide-Open Nobel Economics Race
Source: Polymarket market “Nobel Economics Prize Winner 2026”
unlikely (22%)
Leading outcome
Ariel Pakes 22%
Unlikely · B
venues agree
24h move
0.0 pts
Ariel Pakes
Traded 24h
$33K
$33K all time
Resolves by
2026-10-13
in 6 days
Source markets
4
4 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
Ariel Pakes
22%
0.0
Susan Athey
18%
0.0
Robert Barro
10%
0.0
Partha Dasgupta
10%
0.0
Victor Chernozhukov
10%
0.0
Richard Blundell
9%
0.0
Source markets for this story
2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner
Kalshi · Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms 16%
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Polymarket · Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms 15% · +1.1 24h
Nobel Chemistry Prize Winner 2026
Polymarket · Shankar Balasubramanian 18%
Nobel Economics Prize Winner 2026
Polymarket · Ariel Pakes 22%
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