Finance

S&P 500 Likely to End 2026 in Positive Territory, but Confidence Has Slipped

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Will the S&P finish positive this year?”

likely (85%)
Leading outcome Yes 85% Likely · Stable · B · tracked 102 days very likely → likely venues disagree 5.9pp
24h move ▼ 8.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $55K $1.7M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 3 3 markets · mixed

Source markets for this story

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2027 70% · +0.5 24h
Will the S&P finish positive this year? Kalshi · Yes 85% · -8.0 24h
Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...? Polymarket · December 31 22% · -1.0 24h
The Money Talks — Russia's Capture of Dobropillia Is Very Likely a Matter of When, Not Whether
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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Bitcoin Is Likely to Dip Below $65,000 Before Year-End 2026

likely (82%)

What had been a lean is now a likely call — money has sharply repriced a major Bitcoin correction into the base case, with a 50% chance of a drop to $60,000 also in play. This market has whipsawed 28 times across conviction rungs, so the signal is directional but far from settled.

Updated 10:45 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.5M markets read 21 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 108 days range 92% (84d ago) – 42% (9d ago) trending in today's news leaning yes → likely 28 tier changes
Finance

Ethereum Looks Headed for $1,750 Before Year-End

leaning yes (62%)

What had been a coin flip has tipped into a lean, with deeper floors — $1,500 and below — drawing meaningful probability too; the near-term read above $1,900 through mid-November buys time, but the direction of travel through year-end is increasingly down.

Updated 12:23 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $162K markets read 9 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 108 days range 89% (97d ago) – 26% (9d ago) trending in today's news a coin flip → leaning yes 23 tier changes
Finance leaning $1.25–$1.5T

Anthropic's IPO Valuation Is a Dead Heat Around $1.25–$1.5 Trillion

$1.25–$1.5T: a coin flip (46%)

The IPO itself is virtually certain to happen, and a trillion-dollar debut is nearly as sure — but where exactly the opening price lands is genuinely unresolved, with the $1.25–$1.5T band leading only narrowly over a wide spread of outcomes, and what had been a lean toward the higher $1.5–$1.75T band now fading.

Updated 4:59 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $627K markets read 15 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 96 days range 46% (0d ago) – 17% (90d ago) probably not → a coin flip 16 tier changes AI IPO beat