A 5-Year Treasury Yield Drop Below 4.50% This Year Is Now a Dead Heat
Source: Polymarket market “How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?”
probably not (34%)
Leading outcome
Below 4.50% 34%
Probably not · D
unlikely → probably not
24h move
▲
19.0 pts
Below 4.50%
Traded 24h
$19K
$106K all time
Resolves by
2026-12-31
Where the money stands
Below 4.50%
34%
▲
19.0
Below 4.45%
18%
▲
11.5
Below 4.40%
12%
▲
7.0
Below 4.35%
6%
▲
2.0
Below 4.30%
5%
▲
2.2
Below 4.25%
3%
0.2
The Front Page, every morning — what the markets believe about the world.