The Fed Looks Set to Hold in January, but a Hike Looms by December
Source: Polymarket market “Fed Decision in January?”
No change: leaning yes (62%)
Leading outcome
No change 62%
Leaning yes · Falling · A · tracked 27 days
peak 64% (4d ago) · low 46% (14d ago)
2 tier changes over tracking period
24h move
▼
4.0 pts
No change
Traded 24h
$42K
$337K all time
Resolves by
2027-01-28
Source markets
5
5 markets · mixed
Where the money stands
No change
62%
▼
4.0
25 bps increase
32%
▲
1.0
25 bps decrease
2%
0.1
50+ bps increase
2%
0.1
50+ bps decrease
1%
0.1
Source markets for this story
Fed Decision in October?
Polymarket · No change 82% · -1.0 24h
Fed Decision in December?
Polymarket · 25 bps increase 76% · +1.0 24h
Fed decision in Oct 2026?
Kalshi · Fed maintains rate 84% · -1.0 24h
Fed Decision in January?
Polymarket · No change 62% · -4.0 24h
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Polymarket · 0 (0 bps) 96%
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