Finance

The Tesla Roadster's Rocket Stunt Is a Dead Heat

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?”

a coin flip (50%)
Leading outcome Yes 50% A coin flip · C
24h move 0.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $23K $23K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-16 in 1 day
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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The Fed Likely Holds in October, Then Raises in December

No change: likely (78%)

A hike this year is now the base case, not a tail risk — the path the money has settled on is a pause now followed by a December move, with January looking increasingly live as well, suggesting the tightening cycle has one or two turns left.

Updated 10:36 PM ET ▼ down overnight
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Treasury Yields Hitting 5.4% This Cycle Now Looks Unlikely

probably not (33%)

What had been leaning toward a 5.4% breach is now probably not happening — but this market has swung across conviction rungs 18 times, and a single inflation print or tariff shock could reopen the question before 2027.

Updated 11:24 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
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traded today $25K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 76 days range 98% (31d ago) – 40% (36d ago) trending in today's news leaning yes → probably not 18 tier changes
Finance

Gemini Argon Is Virtually Certain to Clear the 55% Humanity's Last Exam Threshold

virtually certain (100%)

What had been a leaning-yes call is now virtually certain — but this market has swung across conviction rungs three times since tracking began, and that instability means the reading deserves respect, not complacency. A 55% score would mark a significant capability milestone for frontier AI benchmarking.

Updated 10:36 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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traded today $18K markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 13 days range 100% (0d ago) – 77% (3d ago) a coin flip → virtually certain 3 tier changes