World

New U.S. Sanctions on China Are Very Likely Before October 31

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “US imposes new sanctions on China by...?”

very likely (94%)
Leading outcome October 31, 2026 94% Very likely · C virtually impossible → very likely
24h move ▲ 92.3 pts October 31, 2026
Traded 24h $21K $28K all time
Resolves by 2026-12-01

Where the money stands

October 31, 2026 94% ▲ 92.3
November 30 30% ▼ 1.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from World

World

The Iranian Blockade Lifts — But the Timeline Is Increasingly Uncertain

leaning yes (63%)

Ceasefires on both the US and Israeli fronts are holding at near-certainty, yet Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end is priced at just 12% — meaning the blockade's formal end and the strait's functional recovery are two very different events, and what had been a likely resolution is now only leaning that way.

Updated 4:18 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $530K markets read 19 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 96 days range 96% (88d ago) – 55% (54d ago) 11 tier changes venues disagree 20.0pp
World one clear front-runner

Marine Le Pen Leads a Volatile French Presidential Race

Marine Le Pen: probably not (42%)

Her position is stronger than it was three months ago but well off last week's peak, and the field behind her — Philippe, Lisnard, and Mélenchon splitting the remaining vote nearly evenly — means a runoff outcome remains genuinely unpredictable.

Updated 11:24 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $1.3M markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 96 days range 48% (14d ago) – 29% (95d ago) 4 tier changes
World

Trump and Xi Are Very Likely to Speak Before December

very likely (94%)

The conversation is no longer speculative — it is the base case, with a Trump-Xi meeting priced nearly as high — and a surge in Mohammed bin Salman's odds signals Trump is moving toward a broader round of personal diplomacy with major world leaders before year-end.

Updated 8:33 PM ET ▲ drifting up for days
the numbers
traded today $40K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade C range 96% (0d ago) – 90% (2d ago) trending in today's news leaning yes → very likely