Finance

Anthropic Is Very Likely to Debut Above a $1.5 Trillion Valuation

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ?”

very likely (91%)
Leading outcome $1.5T 91% Very likely · Stable · C · tracked 23 days peak 95% (21d ago) · low 88% (12d ago) likely → very likely 6 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 42.4pp
24h move 0.2 pts $1.5T
Traded 24h $74 $8K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 25 25 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

$1.5T 91% 0.2
$1.75T 88% ▲ 0.5
$2T 71% ▲ 4.0
$2.25T 38% ▼ 3.0
$2.5T 16% 0.0
$2.75T 6% 0.0

Source markets for this story

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Mar 1, 2027 90%
Anthropic IPO by __? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 82%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Polymarket · ↑$1.5T 94%
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · 1.5T+ 60% · -3.5 24h
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.75T–$2.0T 28% · +6.0 24h
In which month will Anthropic IPO? Polymarket · November 2026 71% · +3.8 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · $2.0–$2.25T 29%
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · No IPO by December 31, 2026 95%
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? Polymarket · Anthropic 54% · +1.1 24h
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Jun 1, 2027 50%
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.75–$2.00T 44%
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) Polymarket · 1.8T+ 80% · -0.5 24h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Polymarket · Yes 97%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $800B 79%
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 600B+ 96% · +1.7 24h
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Kalshi · Anthropic 94% · +1.0 24h
OpenAI IPO by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 40%
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 79%
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $1.5T 91%
Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 59% · -5.0 24h
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? Polymarket · Yes 68%
Which banks will take Anthropic public? Kalshi · Mizuho 84%
Which banks will take OpenAI public? Kalshi · Stifel Financial 44%
Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Kalshi · Morgan Stanley 91%
Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 30%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance a real race

OpenAI's IPO Is Likely to Value the Company Above $1 Trillion

$1.75T–$2.0T: probably not (28%)

A sub-$1T outcome has slipped further into unlikely territory, but the spread across higher valuation buckets is wide — the money agrees the floor is high while disagreeing sharply on whether the ceiling is $1.75T or north of $2.5T.

Updated 5:11 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $7K markets read 25 venue Polymarket grade C trending in today's news unlikely → probably not AI IPO beat
Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to Go Public Before 2027

likely (84%)

The AI funding boom has made a public listing plausible on an accelerated timeline, but this market has swung violently — dropping from near-certainty 46 days ago to a low just last week — and the current reading should be treated as a lean, not a settled forecast.

Updated 5:11 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $1K venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Not Join the S&P 500 This Year

virtually impossible (1%)

An IPO and index inclusion in the same calendar year was always a near-impossibility, and the money treats it as a virtual certainty that 2026 ends without SpaceX on the index — the question of when, not whether, remains the live debate.

Updated 5:11 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

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