Financeodds favor No change

Bank of England's December Rate Decision Is Now Too Close to Call

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Bank of England decision in December?”

No change: leaning yes (58%)
Leading outcome No change 58% Leaning yes · A probably not → leaning yes
24h move ▼ 16.0 pts No change
Traded 24h $20K $65K all time
Resolves by 2026-12-17
Source markets 11 11 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

No change 58% ▼ 16.0
25 bps increase 42% ▲ 19.5
25 bps decrease 0% ▼ 1.0
50+ bps decrease 0% 0.1
50+ bps increase 0% ▼ 0.8

Source markets for this story

Fed Decision in December? Polymarket · 25 bps increase 68% · -9.0 24h
Fed decision in Dec 2026? Kalshi · Hike 25bps 70% · -10.0 24h
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? Polymarket · 0 (0 bps) 97%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Polymarket · Yes 68% · -9.0 24h
Fed Decision in January? Polymarket · No change 74% · -4.0 24h
Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting? Kalshi · Above 2.75% 99%
Fed Decision in March? Polymarket · No change 60% · +13.0 24h
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? Polymarket · 2 (50 bps) 67% · -10.5 24h
Bank of England decision in December? Polymarket · No change 58% · -16.0 24h
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) Polymarket · Pause-Hike-Pause 66% · -6.5 24h
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) Polymarket · Hike–Pause–Hike 68% · -10.0 24h
The Money Talks — The Fed Likely Holds Rates Steady in October — And the Case Is Getting Stronger
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from Finance

Finance odds favor 25 bps increase

The Fed Looks Set to Hike Rates in December, but Conviction Is Slipping

25 bps increase: leaning yes (64%)

A rate increase by year-end is still the lean, but what had been a likely call is now a leaning-yes — and a market that has crossed conviction boundaries 13 times offers no stable floor. The near-certainty of no cuts in 2026 remains intact, making a hike the only live question on the path.

Updated 1:21 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $1.7M markets read 11 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 95 days range 80% (8d ago) – 44% (62d ago) likely → leaning yes 14 tier changes
Finance

Anthropic's $1.5 Trillion Valuation Target Likely Still Within Reach This Year

likely (82%)

The IPO timeline itself is fracturing — a November listing now looks no better than a coin flip, and the $2 trillion ceiling has been dramatically repriced downward — meaning investors expect Anthropic to go public, but at a more modest opening valuation than the market believed even a week ago.

Updated 12:22 AM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $123K markets read 15 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 100 days range 99% (71d ago) – 80% (0d ago) 12 tier changes venues disagree 3.5pp
Finance

Bitcoin Is Edging Toward a $70,000 Dip by Year-End

leaning yes (55%)

What had been probably-not territory is now leaning yes — a sharp reversal driven by near-term dip markets surging, even as money holding above $60,000 through year-end remains strong at 91%; the picture is a volatile coin caught between a soft floor and a meaningful pullback risk.

Updated 12:31 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $699K markets read 19 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 100 days range 92% (76d ago) – 42% (1d ago) probably not → a coin flip 24 tier changes