World

Mizuho Is Likely to Lead Anthropic's IPO

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Which banks will take Anthropic public?”

likely (84%)
Leading outcome Mizuho 84% Likely · Stable · B · tracked 13 days
24h move 0.0 pts Mizuho
Traded 24h $0 $18K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 9 9 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Mizuho 84% 0.0
Allen & Company 51% 0.0
Raymond James 44% 0.0
William Blair 42% 0.0
Stifel Financial 37% 0.0
Piper Sandler 19% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · $2.0–$2.25T 23% · -2.0 24h
Anthropic IPO by __? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 76% · -0.5 24h
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Apr 1, 2027 89% · -1.0 24h
In which month will Anthropic IPO? Polymarket · November 2026 59% · +4.3 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) Polymarket · 1.8T+ 82%
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.75–$2.00T 46% · +2.5 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 600B+ 96%
Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Kalshi · Morgan Stanley 78% · -8.0 24h
Which banks will take Anthropic public? Kalshi · Mizuho 84%
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance wide open

Anthropic's IPO Valuation Is Most Likely to Land Between $2.0T and $2.25T

$2.0–$2.25T: unlikely (23%)

The IPO itself looks very likely to happen — related markets price an announcement before April 2027 at 89% and a November 2026 listing at 59% — but the valuation band is genuinely uncertain, with the $2.5–$2.75T range closing fast as the second-biggest contender.

Updated 10:41 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $32K markets read 9 venue Polymarket grade A AI IPO beat
Finance wide open

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Is Likely to Clear $1 Trillion

<$1T: unlikely (23%)

The wide spread of outcomes — no single band above 21% — signals deep uncertainty about where OpenAI actually prices, but the floor looks increasingly firm: a sub-$1T result, which peaked at 40% six weeks ago, has now slid to its tracking low. Anthropic is priced to go public first, which may set the reference point that anchors OpenAI's eventual number.

Updated 10:41 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $4K markets read 12 venue Polymarket grade C trending in today's news AI IPO beat
Finance leaning SpaceX

SpaceX and Anthropic Are a Dead Heat for 2026's Biggest IPO

SpaceX: a coin flip (49%)

SpaceX has clawed back from probable underdog to co-favorite in two days, but this race has crossed conviction tiers ten times — the only settled conclusion is that no one knows which launch, rocket or AI, claims the year's marquee debut.

Updated 10:41 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $197 venue Polymarket grade D probably not → a coin flip AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Not Join the S&P 500 This Year

virtually impossible (2%)

An IPO and index inclusion in the same calendar year was always a near-impossibility, and the money treats it as a virtual certainty that 2026 ends without SpaceX on the index — the question of when, not whether, remains the live debate.

Updated 10:41 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

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