Finance

An OpenAI IPO Before Mid-2027 Is Now Looking Unlikely

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “OpenAI IPO by...?”

a coin flip (45%)
Resolved The money put December 31, 2026 at 22% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome June 30, 2027 45% A coin flip · Stable · C · tracked 77 days peak 57% (39d ago) · low 15% (63d ago) probably not → a coin flip 8 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 56.6pp
24h move ▲ 4.5 pts June 30, 2027
Traded 24h $776 $3.1M all time
Resolves by 2027-07-01
Source markets 12 12 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

June 30, 2027 45% ▲ 4.5
March 31, 2027 20% 0.0
December 31, 2026 4% 0.2

Source markets for this story

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · 1.5T+ 36% · -3.8 24h
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · No IPO by December 31, 2026 94% · -0.7 24h
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · <$1T 23% · +0.7 24h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Polymarket · Yes 98% · -0.5 24h
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Kalshi · Anthropic 97% · -1.0 24h
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $800B 80% · +1.8 24h
OpenAI IPO by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 45% · +4.5 24h
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Jun 1, 2027 54%
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 72%
Which banks will take OpenAI public? Kalshi · Stifel Financial 44%
How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO? Polymarket · <$30B 38% · -2.2 24h
Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 23%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance one clear front-runner

OpenAI's IPO Is Coming — But a $1.5 Trillion Debut Is No Sure Thing

1.5T+: probably not (36%)

The money is now confident OpenAI will go public before Anthropic and likely above an $800 billion valuation, but the $1.5 trillion threshold has slipped from coin-flip territory to the less-likely side — and with Sam Altman's super-voting share odds collapsing, the governance structure at IPO remains genuinely uncertain.

Updated 2:06 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $49K markets read 12 venue Polymarket grade B AI IPO beat
Finance leaning SpaceX

SpaceX's IPO Crown Is Now a Coin Flip as Anthropic Closes In

SpaceX: a coin flip (54%)

After trading near certainty just three months ago, SpaceX's grip on the top slot has dissolved — Anthropic's surge to 45% means the AI challenger has effectively drawn even, turning what looked like a foregone conclusion into the year's most genuinely open financial race.

Updated 2:06 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $28K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade C leaning yes → a coin flip AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX's S&P 500 Entry Is a Dead Heat Through March 2027

a coin flip (50%)

A coin-flip split on one of the most anticipated listings in years reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Elon Musk will take SpaceX public on any predictable schedule — the money is not betting against it, but it is not betting on it either.

Updated 2:06 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

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