Finance

Anthropic or OpenAI Will Very Likely IPO Before the End of 2027

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?”

virtually certain (98%)
Leading outcome Yes 98% Virtually certain · Rising · C · tracked 81 days peak 98% · low 84% (79d ago) 2 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 56.6pp
24h move ▼ 0.5 pts Yes
Traded 24h $1K $454K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 12 12 markets · mixed

Source markets for this story

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · 1.5T+ 36% · -3.8 24h
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · No IPO by December 31, 2026 94% · -0.7 24h
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · <$1T 23% · +0.7 24h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Polymarket · Yes 98% · -0.5 24h
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Kalshi · Anthropic 97% · -1.0 24h
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $800B 80% · +1.8 24h
OpenAI IPO by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 45% · +4.5 24h
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Jun 1, 2027 54%
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 72%
Which banks will take OpenAI public? Kalshi · Stifel Financial 44%
How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO? Polymarket · <$30B 38% · -2.2 24h
Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 23%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance one clear front-runner

OpenAI's IPO Is Coming — But a $1.5 Trillion Debut Is No Sure Thing

1.5T+: probably not (36%)

The money is now confident OpenAI will go public before Anthropic and likely above an $800 billion valuation, but the $1.5 trillion threshold has slipped from coin-flip territory to the less-likely side — and with Sam Altman's super-voting share odds collapsing, the governance structure at IPO remains genuinely uncertain.

Updated 2:06 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $49K markets read 12 venue Polymarket grade B AI IPO beat
Finance leaning SpaceX

SpaceX's IPO Crown Is Now a Coin Flip as Anthropic Closes In

SpaceX: a coin flip (54%)

After trading near certainty just three months ago, SpaceX's grip on the top slot has dissolved — Anthropic's surge to 45% means the AI challenger has effectively drawn even, turning what looked like a foregone conclusion into the year's most genuinely open financial race.

Updated 2:06 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $28K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade C leaning yes → a coin flip AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX's S&P 500 Entry Is a Dead Heat Through March 2027

a coin flip (50%)

A coin-flip split on one of the most anticipated listings in years reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Elon Musk will take SpaceX public on any predictable schedule — the money is not betting against it, but it is not betting on it either.

Updated 2:06 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

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traded today $1.3M markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 88 days range 80% (1d ago) – 44% (55d ago) likely → leaning yes 12 tier changes
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Apple: very likely (94%)

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Updated 12:28 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
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traded today $189K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 29 days range 96% (24d ago) – 58% (0d ago) resolves in 2 days 8 tier changes