Finance

Raymond James Fades as OpenAI's Syndicate Picture Blurs

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Which banks will take OpenAI public?”

probably not (44%)
Leading outcome Stifel Financial 44% Probably not · Stable · B · tracked 47 days peak 99% (43d ago) · low 42% (21d ago) a coin flip → probably not venues disagree 50.2pp
24h move 0.0 pts Stifel Financial
Traded 24h $40 $12K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 10 10 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Stifel Financial 44% 0.0
Needham & Company 39% 0.0
Raymond James 34% ▼ 8.0
Allen & Company 29% 0.0
Rothschild & Co 29% 0.0
William Blair 29% 0.0

Source markets for this story

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · 1.5T+ 38% · +1.1 24h
IPOs before 2027? Polymarket · Anthropic 88% · -5.5 24h
OpenAI IPO by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 45%
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.25T–$1.5T 21%
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · No IPO by December 31, 2026 94%
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Jun 1, 2027 50% · -4.0 24h
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $800B 78% · -2.9 24h
Which banks will take OpenAI public? Kalshi · Stifel Financial 44%
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 72%
Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 23%
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance a real race

Anthropic's IPO-Day Market Cap Is a Wide-Open Question

$1.75–$2.0T: probably not (30%)

The $1.75–$2.0T band leads at just 30%, with a surging $1.5–$1.75T challenger closing fast — what had been an unlikely scenario for the lower range is now probably not out of the picture, and a market that has crossed conviction rungs thirteen times offers no stable anchor for where the stock actually lands on day one.

Updated 1:44 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $131K markets read 16 venue Polymarket grade B AI IPO beat
Finance odds favor SpaceX

SpaceX Edges Ahead in the Race for 2026's Biggest IPO

SpaceX: leaning yes (58%)

What had been a coin flip is now leaning SpaceX's way, but Anthropic still commands 42% and this market has crossed conviction rungs twenty times — the finish line remains genuinely uncertain.

Updated 1:44 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $52K venue Polymarket grade C AI IPO beat
Finance one clear front-runner

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Is a Wide-Open Question, With $1.5T Slightly the Favorite

1.5T+: probably not (38%)

Even if OpenAI goes public, landing at or above a $1.5 trillion valuation is far from assured — a meaningful chance of no IPO at all by end of 2027 means the real uncertainty is whether the listing happens, not just what it's worth when it does.

Updated 1:44 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $18K markets read 10 venue Polymarket grade B AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX's S&P 500 Entry Is a Dead Heat Through March 2027

a coin flip (50%)

A coin-flip split on one of the most anticipated listings in years reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Elon Musk will take SpaceX public on any predictable schedule — the money is not betting against it, but it is not betting on it either.

Updated 1:44 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

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