Finance

Allen & Company Is Virtually Certain to Take OpenAI Public Before 2028

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Which banks will take OpenAI public?”

virtually certain (99%)
Leading outcome Allen & Company 99% Virtually certain · C venues disagree 38.0pp
24h move ▲ 76.0 pts Allen & Company
Traded 24h $3K $9K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 12 12 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Allen & Company 99% ▲ 76.0
Stifel Financial 40% ▼ 1.0
Raymond James 36% ▼ 14.0
Needham & Company 35% ▼ 1.0
William Blair 34% ▼ 9.0
Rothschild & Co 29% 0.0

Source markets for this story

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · No IPO by December 31, 2026 96% · +0.8 24h
Which banks will take OpenAI public? Kalshi · Allen & Company 99% · +76.0 24h
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? Polymarket · Anthropic 55% · +2.3 24h
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Kalshi · Anthropic 93% · -1.0 24h
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.75T–$2.0T 22%
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · 1.5T+ 78%
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Jun 1, 2027 57% · -5.0 24h
OpenAI IPO by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 52% · +1.0 24h
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $800B 94% · +2.0 24h
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? Polymarket · Yes 68%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Polymarket · Yes 94%
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 79%
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to Announce an IPO Before April 2027

likely (89%)

Confidence has slipped from very likely to likely over the past week, and the pullback in near-term windows suggests the timeline is stretching — but the valuation market pricing above $1.5 trillion means the question is not whether Anthropic goes public, but when.

Updated 9:18 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $33K markets read 11 venue Kalshi grade A trending in today's news a coin flip → likely AI IPO beat
Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to IPO Before 2027

likely (84%)

A listing this year would mark the first major AI-native company to go public, but conviction has eroded sharply from a near-certain peak just four weeks ago — this is a likely call, not a settled one, and the market has already reversed course multiple times.

Updated 9:18 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $4K venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Not Join the S&P 500 This Year

virtually impossible (1%)

An IPO and index inclusion in the same calendar year was always a near-impossibility, and the money treats it as a virtual certainty that 2026 ends without SpaceX on the index — the question of when, not whether, remains the live debate.

Updated 9:18 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $187 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

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25 bps increase: likely (86%)

A hike is increasingly the default assumption, not a tail risk — but this market has swung across conviction rungs thirteen times, and the odds remain one tier below certainty, leaving room for a last-minute policy shift if data turns.

Updated 10:51 AM ET ▲ up overnight
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Anthropic Is Likely to Announce an IPO Before April 2027

likely (87%)

Confidence has slipped from very likely to likely over the past week, and the pullback in near-term windows suggests the timeline is stretching — but the valuation market pricing above $1.5 trillion means the question is not whether Anthropic goes public, but when.

Updated 6:52 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $69K markets read 11 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 45 days range 98% (9d ago) – 84% (44d ago) trending in today's news a coin flip → likely 4 tier changes AI IPO beat
Finance

An AI Model Has Already Crossed the 1520 Arena Score Threshold

virtually certain (100%)

What had been likely is now a certainty — some model has cleared the 1520 benchmark, collapsing that contract to 100% in a single session. Anthropic is very likely the source, priced at 96% to hold the top spot by September's end, while the 1530 and above thresholds remain near zero, suggesting the frontier moved decisively but not explosively.

Updated 7:50 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $138K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 14 days range 100% (0d ago) – 76% (1d ago) likely → virtually certain 3 tier changes