Financeodds favor November 2026

Anthropic's IPO Is Increasingly Pointed at November

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “In which month will Anthropic IPO?”

November 2026: leaning yes (72%)
Resolved The money put October 2026 at 63% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome November 2026 72% Leaning yes · Rising · C · tracked 63 days peak 88% (50d ago) · low 48% (31d ago) 6 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 60.9pp
24h move ▲ 8.5 pts November 2026
Traded 24h $18K $426K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 16 16 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

November 2026 72% ▲ 8.5
December 2026 14% ▼ 3.4
January 2027 11% ▼ 2.9
February 2027 1% 0.1
March 2027 1% 0.2
April 2027 1% 0.0

Source markets for this story

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Apr 1, 2027 91% · +5.0 24h
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2029 20% · -2.0 24h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Polymarket · ↑$1.5T 92% · -0.5 24h
Anthropic IPO by __? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 86% · +8.0 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · $1.75–$2.0T 25% · -2.5 24h
In which month will Anthropic IPO? Polymarket · November 2026 72% · +8.5 24h
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.50–$1.75T 39% · -5.9 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) Polymarket · 1.8T+ 62% · +3.0 24h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Polymarket · Yes 95% · +0.8 24h
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $1.5T 85% · -4.2 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 600B+ 96% · +1.5 24h
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Kalshi · Anthropic 93% · -1.0 24h
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? Polymarket · Yes 65% · -3.5 24h
Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Kalshi · Morgan Stanley 79%
Which banks will take Anthropic public? Kalshi · Mizuho 89%
Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 54%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance

Anthropic's IPO Is Very Likely Before April 2027 — and Probably Much Sooner

very likely (91%)

What had been likely is now very likely — and the sharper move is in the near-term windows, with a November announcement now the plurality expectation; at a valuation the market pegs above $1.5 trillion, this would rank among the largest public offerings ever attempted.

Updated 9:16 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $242K markets read 16 venue Kalshi grade B trending in today's news likely → very likely AI IPO beat
Finance a real race

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Remains Wide Open, With a Sub-$1T Outcome Leading a Fractured Field

<$1T: probably not (27%)

No single valuation band commands conviction — the leading outcome sits at just 26%, and Anthropic is heavily favored to reach public markets first. OpenAI's own IPO timeline stretches well into 2027, leaving its eventual price tag genuinely unresolved.

Updated 9:16 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $27K markets read 9 venue Polymarket grade B unlikely → probably not AI IPO beat
Finance odds favor SpaceX

SpaceX Is Favored for the Largest IPO of 2026

SpaceX: leaning yes (69%)

Anthropic's sharp retreat as a challenger narrows the credible competition, but SpaceX has ricocheted across conviction tiers seventeen times — the 70% reading reflects a genuine lean, not a settled outcome, in a year where the IPO landscape can reprice fast.

Updated 9:16 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $8K markets read 3 venue Polymarket grade C AI IPO beat

More from Finance

Finance

Anthropic's IPO Is Very Likely Before April 2027 — and Probably Much Sooner

very likely (91%)

What had been likely is now very likely — and the sharper move is in the near-term windows, with a November announcement now the plurality expectation; at a valuation the market pegs above $1.5 trillion, this would rank among the largest public offerings ever attempted.

Updated 9:17 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $242K markets read 16 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 81 days range 98% (45d ago) – 84% (11d ago) trending in today's news likely → very likely 16 tier changes venues disagree 60.9pp AI IPO beat
Finance 25 bps increase on track to win

The Bank of Canada Is Likely to Hike Rates in October

25 bps increase: likely (80%)

What had been very likely is now merely likely — conviction softened even as the direction of travel stayed clear. A hold is no longer a fringe scenario, and with the decision still weeks out, another rung-shift cannot be ruled out.

Updated 4:22 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $47K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 14 days range 84% (13d ago) – 69% (1d ago) resolves in 6 days virtually certain → likely 2 tier changes
Finance No change on track to win

The Fed Will Hold Rates Through October — Then Likely Hike in December

No change: likely (88%)

A pause this fall is nearly certain, but the related markets tell the real story: no cuts are coming in 2026, and a December hike is now the consensus path, leaving borrowers with no relief in sight this year.

Updated 7:28 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $2.3M markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 85 days range 88% (0d ago) – 50% (34d ago) 7 tier changes