Finance

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Is Very Likely to Top $800 Billion

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?”

very likely (93%)
Leading outcome $800B 93% Very likely · Stable · C · tracked 8 days venues disagree 36.1pp
24h move 0.4 pts $800B
Traded 24h $626 $1.5M all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 22 22 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

$800B 93% 0.4
$1T 78% ▼ 0.5
$1.2T 76% ▲ 1.0
$1.6T 66% ▼ 1.0
$1.4T 66% ▼ 4.0

Source markets for this story

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Polymarket · ↑$1.5T 88% · -1.0 24h
Anthropic IPO by __? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 80% · +6.0 24h
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Apr 1, 2027 90% · -1.0 24h
Which parties will be in next Swedish Government? Polymarket · Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) 82% · -4.7 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · $2.0–$2.25T 24%
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.75T–$2.0T 22%
OpenAI IPO by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 56% · +0.5 24h
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · 1.5T+ 68% · +2.9 24h
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.75–$2.00T 46%
In which month will Anthropic IPO? Polymarket · November 2026 52% · +3.5 24h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Polymarket · Yes 95% · -1.4 24h
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before May 1, 2027 47% · -2.0 24h
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $800B 93%
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 600B+ 96%
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Kalshi · Anthropic 91% · +3.0 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) Polymarket · 1.8T+ 83%
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? Polymarket · Yes 68%
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · No IPO by December 31, 2026 96%
Which banks will take OpenAI public? Kalshi · Raymond James 42%
Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Kalshi · Morgan Stanley 80%
Which banks will take Anthropic public? Kalshi · Mizuho 84%
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 79%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to Go Public Before 2027

likely (81%)

What had been a lean is now a likely call — but this market has swung across conviction rungs four times, so the verdict is directional, not final. An Anthropic IPO by year-end would reshape the AI funding landscape and set a valuation benchmark every rival lab would be measured against.

Updated 9:44 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $13K venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat
Finance odds favor Anthropic

Anthropic Narrowly Favored for Largest IPO of 2026 as SpaceX Fades

Anthropic: leaning yes (55%)

SpaceX's sharp retreat opens the door further for Anthropic, but nine conviction-rung crossings since tracking began make this the most volatile call in the IPO space — the lean is real, the certainty is not.

Updated 9:44 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $7K venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Not Join the S&P 500 This Year

very unlikely (3%)

An IPO and index inclusion in the same calendar year was always a near-impossibility, and the money treats it as a virtual certainty that 2026 ends without SpaceX on the index — the question of when, not whether, remains the live debate.

Updated 9:44 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D virtually impossible → very unlikely AI IPO beat

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