Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to IPO by Year-End, but Confidence Is Slipping

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Anthropic IPO by __?”

likely (78%)
Resolved The money put December 31, 2026 at 87% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome December 31, 2026 78% Likely · Stable · B · tracked 88 days peak 96% (51d ago) · low 62% (85d ago) leaning yes → likely 13 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 70.4pp
24h move ▼ 1.0 pts December 31, 2026
Traded 24h $63K $5.4M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
Source markets 10 10 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

December 31, 2026 78% ▼ 1.0
December 15, 2026 74% 0.0
November 30, 2026 64% ▲ 7.0
November 25, 2026 56% ▲ 7.5
November 20, 2026 26% ▼ 4.5
November 15, 2026 2% ▲ 0.8

Source markets for this story

Anthropic IPO by __? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 78% · -1.0 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · $1.75–$2.0T 30% · +3.0 24h
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Apr 1, 2027 93% · +2.0 24h
In which month will Anthropic IPO? Polymarket · November 2026 64% · +5.1 24h
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.50–$1.75T 55% · +7.5 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) Polymarket · 1.8T+ 60% · -0.5 24h
Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Kalshi · Morgan Stanley 83%
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $1.5T 85% · -1.1 24h
Which banks will take Anthropic public? Kalshi · Mizuho 89%
Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 54%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance

Anthropic Is Very Likely to Announce Its IPO Before March 2027

very likely (93%)

An IPO announcement is now a near-certainty on a compressed timeline, with the money coalescing around late 2026 — though a sharp 13-point collapse in the November window odds signals the market has abandoned hopes of an imminent announcement in favor of early next year.

Updated 8:19 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $56K markets read 10 venue Kalshi grade B AI IPO beat
Finance a real race

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Is Anyone's Guess, With a 2027 Listing Far from Certain

<$1T: probably not (26%)

A 2026 IPO is virtually off the table, a 2027 listing is still a minority call at 40%, and when it does happen the valuation distribution is nearly flat from under $1 trillion to $1.75 trillion — meaning even the most-favored band commands barely a quarter of the money. The uncertainty here is not about timing alone; it is about whether the market can agree on what OpenAI is worth at all.

Updated 8:19 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $35K markets read 14 venue Polymarket grade B unlikely → probably not AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Very Likely Stay Private Through 2026

virtually impossible (2%)

Elon Musk's rocket company joining the S&P 500 this year remains a remote scenario — no IPO, no index inclusion, and thin trading volume suggests even dedicated watchers have largely stopped debating the timeline.

Updated 8:19 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $89 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

More from Finance

Finance

Anthropic Is Very Likely to Announce Its IPO Before March 2027

very likely (91%)

An IPO announcement is now a near-certainty on a compressed timeline, with the money coalescing around late 2026 — though a sharp 13-point collapse in the November window odds signals the market has abandoned hopes of an imminent announcement in favor of early next year.

Updated 5:24 PM ET ▲ drifting up for days
the numbers
traded today $80K markets read 10 venue Kalshi grade B tracked 84 days range 98% (48d ago) – 84% (14d ago) 17 tier changes venues disagree 70.4pp AI IPO beat
Finance No change on track to win

The Fed Very Likely Stands Pat in October

No change: very likely (94%)

A hold is now the near-certain call for October, but the path beyond is more contested — a rate hike by December is still favored, meaning the pause is a delay, not a pivot.

Updated 12:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $3.2M markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 88 days range 94% (0d ago) – 50% (37d ago) resolves in 4 days 8 tier changes
Finance a real race

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Is Anyone's Guess, With a 2027 Listing Far from Certain

$1.5T–$1.75T: probably not (26%)

A 2026 IPO is virtually off the table, a 2027 listing is still a minority call at 40%, and when it does happen the valuation distribution is nearly flat from under $1 trillion to $1.75 trillion — meaning even the most-favored band commands barely a quarter of the money. The uncertainty here is not about timing alone; it is about whether the market can agree on what OpenAI is worth at all.

Updated 1:03 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $28K markets read 14 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 72 days range 40% (70d ago) – 18% (29d ago) unlikely → probably not 6 tier changes venues disagree 72.2pp AI IPO beat