World

Dario Amodei Very Likely Gives Up Super-Voting Control at Anthropic's IPO

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?”

very unlikely (7%)
Leading outcome Yes 7% Very unlikely · Rising · B · tracked 31 days peak 69% (27d ago) · low 6% (2d ago) unlikely → very unlikely 6 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▼ 8.0 pts Yes
Traded 24h $1 $6K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 14 14 markets · mixed

Source markets for this story

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Polymarket · ↑$1.5T 89% · -6.9 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · $1.75–$2.0T 30%
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2029 22% · +0.5 24h
Anthropic IPO by __? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 91% · -3.4 24h
Anthropic IPO Date Polymarket · November 18 20% · +1.0 24h
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Feb 1, 2027 94% · +1.0 24h
In which month will Anthropic IPO? Polymarket · November 2026 82% · +3.1 24h
How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO? Polymarket · $95B to $105B 36% · +6.5 24h
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.50–$1.75T 65% · +7.5 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) Polymarket · 1.8T+ 59% · -3.5 24h
Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 92% · -3.0 24h
Anthropic IPO: Open Price above IPO Price? Polymarket · Yes 84% · -4.0 24h
Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 7% · -8.0 24h
Which banks will take Anthropic public? Kalshi · Mizuho 50%
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance one clear front-runner

OpenAI's IPO Is Coming — But a $1.5 Trillion Debut Is No Sure Thing

1.5T+: probably not (36%)

The money is now confident OpenAI will go public before Anthropic and likely above an $800 billion valuation, but the $1.5 trillion threshold has slipped from coin-flip territory to the less-likely side — and with Sam Altman's super-voting share odds collapsing, the governance structure at IPO remains genuinely uncertain.

Updated 2:06 PM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $49K markets read 12 venue Polymarket grade B AI IPO beat
Finance leaning SpaceX

SpaceX's IPO Crown Is Now a Coin Flip as Anthropic Closes In

SpaceX: a coin flip (54%)

After trading near certainty just three months ago, SpaceX's grip on the top slot has dissolved — Anthropic's surge to 45% means the AI challenger has effectively drawn even, turning what looked like a foregone conclusion into the year's most genuinely open financial race.

Updated 2:06 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $28K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade C leaning yes → a coin flip AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX's S&P 500 Entry Is a Dead Heat Through March 2027

a coin flip (50%)

A coin-flip split on one of the most anticipated listings in years reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Elon Musk will take SpaceX public on any predictable schedule — the money is not betting against it, but it is not betting on it either.

Updated 2:06 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

More from World

World

The Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds, but a Hormuz Settlement Looks Distant

virtually certain (100%)

The guns staying quiet is the easy part — a formal Hormuz agreement or full restoration of normal traffic before year-end looks very unlikely, meaning the ceasefire is preserving a fragile pause, not resolving the underlying standoff.

Updated 3:29 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $574K markets read 17 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 93 days range 100% (57d ago) – 79% (29d ago) leaning yes → virtually certain 21 tier changes venues disagree 21.5pp
World one clear front-runner

Marine Le Pen Leads a Volatile French Presidential Race

Marine Le Pen: probably not (42%)

Her position is stronger than it was three months ago but well off last week's peak, and the field behind her — Philippe, Lisnard, and Mélenchon splitting the remaining vote nearly evenly — means a runoff outcome remains genuinely unpredictable.

Updated 11:24 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $1.3M venue Polymarket grade B tracked 93 days range 48% (11d ago) – 29% (92d ago) trending in today's news 4 tier changes
World leaning Christopher Luxon

New Zealand's Next Election Is a Near Dead Heat, With Luxon Narrowly Ahead

Christopher Luxon: a coin flip (53%)

A five-point swing toward Luxon in a single day shifted the race from effectively tied to a narrow lean, but with 47% still on Chris Hipkins, no outcome is close to settled. The contest remains genuinely open, and the result will likely hinge on coalition arithmetic rather than any single decisive break.

Updated 5:08 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $32K venue Polymarket grade C likely → a coin flip