Finance

Anthropic's IPO Is Very Likely Before March 2027, With November the Favored Window

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?”

very likely (92%)
Resolved The money put Before Feb 1, 2027 at 96% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Before Mar 1, 2027 92% Very likely · Rising · A · tracked 81 days peak 98% (45d ago) · low 84% (11d ago) likely → very likely 16 tier changes over tracking period
24h move ▲ 10.0 pts Before Mar 1, 2027
Traded 24h $415K $1.8M all time
Resolves by 2027-04-01
Source markets 13 13 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Before Mar 1, 2027 92% ▲ 10.0
Before Apr 1, 2027 90% ▲ 4.0
Before Feb 1, 2027 88% ▲ 9.0
Before Jan 1, 2027 83% ▲ 7.0
Before Dec 1, 2026 79% ▲ 8.0
Before Nov 16, 2026 27% 0.0

Source markets for this story

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Mar 1, 2027 92% · +10.0 24h
Anthropic IPO by __? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 86% · +7.5 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · $1.75–$2.0T 23% · -4.5 24h
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2029 20%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Polymarket · ↑$1.5T 92%
In which month will Anthropic IPO? Polymarket · November 2026 72% · +9.6 24h
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.50–$1.75T 42% · +4.2 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) Polymarket · 1.8T+ 60% · +0.5 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) Polymarket · 600B+ 96% · +0.5 24h
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $1.5T 84% · -5.7 24h
Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Kalshi · Morgan Stanley 79%
Which banks will take Anthropic public? Kalshi · Mizuho 89%
Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 54%
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance a real race

OpenAI's IPO Valuation Remains Wide Open, With a Sub-$1T Outcome Leading a Fractured Field

<$1T: probably not (27%)

No single valuation band commands conviction — the leading outcome sits at just 26%, and Anthropic is heavily favored to reach public markets first. OpenAI's own IPO timeline stretches well into 2027, leaving its eventual price tag genuinely unresolved.

Updated 7:56 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $18K markets read 13 venue Polymarket grade C AI IPO beat
Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to Go Public Before 2027

likely (87%)

What had been a leaning-yes call is now a likely one, but this market has swung across conviction rungs eight times — the IPO window is real and narrowing, yet Anthropic's path to listing remains sensitive to conditions that have scrambled the odds repeatedly.

Updated 7:56 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $5K venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX Will Very Likely Stay Private Through 2026

virtually impossible (2%)

Elon Musk's rocket company joining the S&P 500 this year remains a remote scenario — no IPO, no index inclusion, and thin trading volume suggests even dedicated watchers have largely stopped debating the timeline.

Updated 7:56 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

More from Finance

Finance No change on track to win

The Fed Will Hold Rates Through October — Then Likely Hike in December

No change: likely (88%)

A pause this fall is nearly certain, but the related markets tell the real story: no cuts are coming in 2026, and a December hike is now the consensus path, leaving borrowers with no relief in sight this year.

Updated 7:28 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $2.3M markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 85 days range 88% (0d ago) – 50% (34d ago) likely → very likely 7 tier changes
Finance No Change on track to win

Russia's Central Bank Likely Holds Rates in October, but a Cut Is Now on the Table

No Change: likely (79%)

What had been a near-certainty for a hold has softened into a likely outcome, with a rate cut climbing to 20% — a meaningful shift that signals growing conviction that Russia's monetary tightening cycle may be turning, even amid wartime economic pressures.

Updated 6:49 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $100K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 4 days range 90% (1d ago) – 84% (3d ago) resolves in 2 days trending in today's news very likely → likely 2 tier changes
Finance 25 bps increase on track to win

The Bank of Canada Is Likely to Hike Rates in October

25 bps increase: likely (84%)

What had been treated as virtually certain is now merely likely, after a sharp reversal yesterday — a reminder that this call has been unstable. A 25-basis-point hike remains the dominant expectation, but the door to a hold has reopened just enough to matter.

Updated 11:44 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $53K markets read 2 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 14 days range 84% (13d ago) – 69% (1d ago) resolves in 6 days very likely → likely 2 tier changes