Financeleaning $1.25–$1.50T

Anthropic's IPO Valuation Increasingly Points to $1.50–$1.75 Trillion

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?”

$1.25–$1.50T: a coin flip (46%)
Leading outcome $1.25–$1.50T 46% A coin flip · Stable · C · tracked 55 days peak 68% (5d ago) · low 32% (45d ago) leaning yes → a coin flip 15 tier changes over tracking period venues disagree 85.8pp
24h move ▲ 18.9 pts $1.25–$1.50T
Traded 24h $10K $352K all time
Resolves by 2028-01-01
Source markets 26 26 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

$1.25–$1.50T 46% ▲ 18.9
<$1.25T 19% ▲ 5.9
$1.50–$1.75T 19% ▼ 27.1
$1.75–$2.00T 5% ▼ 5.2
$2.00–$2.25T 2% 0.2
No IPO by December 31, 2027 2% ▼ 1.0

Source markets for this story

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · $1.25–$1.5T 29% · -1.8 24h
Anthropic IPO by __? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 88% · +0.5 24h
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Polymarket · ↑$1.5T 74% · -1.4 24h
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Apr 1, 2027 94% · +1.0 24h
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) Polymarket · 1.5–1.8T 32% · +5.0 24h
How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO? Polymarket · $65B to $75B 38% · +17.1 24h
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · $1.25–$1.50T 46% · +18.9 24h
In which month will Anthropic IPO? Polymarket · November 2026 77%
What % of Anthropic will be sold in its IPO? Polymarket · 5% to 6% 28% · -3.0 24h
Anthropic IPO Date Polymarket · November 20 34% · +12.0 24h
Anthropic IPO: Closing Price above IPO Price on First Day? Polymarket · Yes 82% · +3.5 24h
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be? Polymarket · <$1T 26% · -2.1 24h
Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 94% · -1.0 24h
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · No IPO by December 31, 2026 98%
Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? Kalshi · Goldman Sachs 69% · -4.0 24h
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Kalshi · Anthropic 92% · -4.0 24h
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO? Kalshi · Before Jun 1, 2027 48% · -1.0 24h
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap Polymarket · 1.5T+ 32% · -1.2 24h
OpenAI IPO by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 46%
Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap? Polymarket · Yes 68% · -8.5 24h
Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 24%
Which banks will take Anthropic public? Kalshi · Mizuho 98% · +48.0 24h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Polymarket · Yes 98%
Which banks will take OpenAI public? Kalshi · Stifel Financial 44%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? Polymarket · $800B 73%
Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO? Kalshi · Yes 10%
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

The AI IPO beat · compare all

Anthropic, OpenAI and the other AI labs on their way to public markets — when, at what valuation, and who goes first. Grouped so the two races can be read side by side.

Finance SpaceX on track to win

SpaceX Is Likely to Lead 2026 IPOs by Market Cap

SpaceX: likely (88%)

Anthropic's collapse from co-favorite to also-ran in a single session reshapes the entire IPO landscape — SpaceX now has the field nearly to itself, though a market this volatile has rewritten the standings before.

Updated 7:35 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $56K venue Polymarket grade C very likely → likely AI IPO beat
Finance

Anthropic Is Likely to Go Public Before 2027

likely (87%)

What had been a near-certainty is now merely likely — Anthropic's IPO path has grown measurably murkier after swinging across conviction rungs fourteen times, signaling that timelines are genuinely contested and a slip past 2027 remains a live scenario.

Updated 7:35 AM ET ▼ down overnight
the numbers
traded today $7K venue Polymarket grade D very likely → likely AI IPO beat
Finance

SpaceX's S&P 500 Entry Is a Dead Heat Through March 2027

a coin flip (50%)

A coin-flip split on one of the most anticipated listings in years reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Elon Musk will take SpaceX public on any predictable schedule — the money is not betting against it, but it is not betting on it either.

Updated 7:35 AM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $0 venue Polymarket grade D AI IPO beat

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SpaceX Is Likely to Lead 2026 IPOs by Market Cap

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traded today $699K markets read 14 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 102 days range 92% (78d ago) – 42% (3d ago) trending in today's news a coin flip → leaning yes 26 tier changes