Worldone clear front-runner

US-Iran Talks Could Land on American Soil — but the Ceasefire Holds Either Way

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?”

USA: probably not (44%)
Leading outcome USA 44% Probably not · B unlikely → probably not
24h move ▲ 27.5 pts USA
Traded 24h $18K $19K all time
Resolves by 2026-12-31
Source markets 19 19 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

USA 44% ▲ 27.5
No Meeting by December 31 28% ▲ 16.5
Switzerland 9% ▼ 8.5
Qatar 8% ▼ 9.0
Oman 7% ▼ 11.0
Pakistan 6% ▼ 8.5

Source markets for this story

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Polymarket · December 31 6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket · December 31 62% · -3.3 24h
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 25 97%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket · Yes 14% · -1.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Polymarket · Yes 20% · -4.0 24h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket · December 31 12% · -3.0 24h
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Polymarket · September 30 95% · -1.0 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 1%
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi · Before Jan 1, 2029 70% · -3.0 24h
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/21 - 9/27) Kalshi · Above 10 96%
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket · June 30, 2027 26% · +0.5 24h
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? Polymarket · Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani 66% · -10.5 24h
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Polymarket · December 31, 2026 77% · -8.0 24h
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? Polymarket · Yes 0%
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Polymarket · 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium 18% · +3.0 24h
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...? Polymarket · USA 44% · +27.5 24h
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? Polymarket · December 31 28% · +4.5 24h
Iran full airspace closure by...? Polymarket · December 31 24% · -0.5 24h
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? Polymarket · October 31 34%
The Money Talks — The US-Iran Ceasefire Very Likely Holds Through September 20 — But Don't Get Comfortable
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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