World

A Saudi-Houthi Ceasefire This Year Is Unlikely

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?”

unlikely (22%)
Resolved The money put December 31 at 22% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome December 31 22% Unlikely · D · tracked 13 days probably not → unlikely
24h move ▲ 0.5 pts December 31
Traded 24h $14K $90K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01

Where the money stands

December 31 22% ▲ 0.5
October 31 8% ▼ 3.0
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from World

World Flávio Bolsonaro on track to win

Flávio Bolsonaro Is Likely to Win Brazil's Presidency

Flávio Bolsonaro: likely (82%)

The Bolsonaro movement is consolidating around Flávio as its standard-bearer, with Lula's support collapsing in tandem — but three conviction-tier swings in recent weeks warn against reading this as settled; the race has lurched before and could again.

Updated 4:15 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $6.2M markets read 9 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 68 days range 84% (0d ago) – 50% (22d ago) resolves today trending in today's news leaning yes → likely 3 tier changes venues disagree 98.9pp
World

Spain Is Almost Certainly Heading for a Snap Election Before October 31

virtually certain (100%)

What had been a coin flip is now virtually certain: Feijóo is very likely the next prime minister, while Sánchez's exit remains a minority bet — together, the related markets describe a government on the edge, not yet fallen but probably headed there within months.

Updated 7:29 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $91K markets read 3 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 4 days range 84% (0d ago) – 60% (1d ago) trending in today's news a coin flip → virtually certain
World

Iran Has Targeted Iraq

virtually certain (100%)

What was a coin flip is now virtually certain — the ceasefire holding between the US and Iran coexists with Iran striking inside Iraq, suggesting Tehran is using proximate Arab targets as a pressure valve while avoiding direct American confrontation.

Updated 4:15 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $154K markets read 20 venue Polymarket grade A probably not → virtually certain