World

Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks This Year Lean Possible but Far From Certain

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?”

Leading outcome December 31 62% Leaning · C
24h move ▲ 1.0 pts December 31
Traded 24h $26K $296K all time
Resolves by 2026-12-31

Where the money stands

December 31 62% ▲ 1.0
September 30 30% ▼ 5.5
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

More from World

December 31 94% Likely ↑ Rising ▼ 1.6 $920K today 25 markets A

The Iranian Blockade Ends Well Before Year's End — but Hormuz Stays Broken

The ceasefire is holding and a US-announced end to the blockade is coming, but restored shipping is a separate problem — Hormuz traffic returning to normal by September sits at just 24%, meaning the waterway's economic damage outlasts the military confrontation by months, with a nuclear deal still a long shot at one-in-three.

Marine Le Pen 30% Contested $623K today B

Marine Le Pen Leads a Wide-Open French Presidential Race

Her narrow edge over Philippe in a fractured field means France's 2027 election is genuinely anyone's race — a Le Pen presidency is the single most likely outcome, but the most probable outcome is still that someone else wins.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 66% Leaning ▲ 2.0 $626K today C

Lula Increasingly Favored to Win Brazil's 2026 Election

The opposition remains fractured, with Flávio Bolsonaro holding a distant second and no challenger consolidating the anti-Lula vote — that fragmentation is Lula's greatest structural asset heading into October.