U.S.wide open

Republicans' Senate Seat Count After the Midterms Remains Wide Open

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?”

47: unlikely (15%)
Resolved The money put 50 at 17% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome 47 15% Unlikely · Stable · B · tracked 80 days peak 22% (6d ago) · low 15% venues disagree 12.2pp
24h move ▲ 1.0 pts 47
Traded 24h $435K $5.4M all time
Resolves by 2027-02-01
Source markets 47 47 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

47 15% ▲ 1.0
48 15% ▼ 1.0
45 13% ▲ 4.0
Below 45 12% ▲ 2.0
46 12% ▲ 2.0
49 11% 0.0

Source markets for this story

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 66% · +3.0 24h
Texas Senate winner? Kalshi · James Talarico 69% · +2.0 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 68% · +2.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner? Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 75% · +5.0 24h
Texas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · James Talarico (D) 70% · +1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · Above 52 46% · +8.0 24h
Kansas Senate winner? Kalshi · Roger Marshall 52% · -9.0 24h
Who will control the Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 68% · +1.0 24h
Michigan Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Abdul El-Sayed (D) 76% · +6.0 24h
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 68% · +2.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 47 15% · +1.0 24h
Maine Senate winner? Kalshi · Troy Jackson 64% · +3.0 24h
Blue wave in 2026? Kalshi · Yes 82%
Florida Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Moody 90%
Iowa Senate winner? Kalshi · Ashley Hinson 53% · -2.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner? Kalshi · Democratic party 67% · -2.0 24h
South Carolina Senate winner? Kalshi · Darline Graham 72% · -1.0 24h
Michigan Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi · Abdul El-Sayed 75% · +4.0 24h
Maine-Texas Senate Combo Kalshi · James Talarico and Troy Jackson 58% · +5.0 24h
Minnesota Senate winner? Kalshi · Peggy Flanagan 90%
Nebraska Senate winner? Kalshi · Pete Ricketts 68% · -3.0 24h
Ohio Senate winner? Kalshi · Sherrod Brown 70% · +2.0 24h
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Polymarket · ≤47 42% · +1.5 24h
Montana Senate winner? Kalshi · Kurt Alme 88% · -1.0 24h
Alaska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Mary Peltola 70% · +1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Higher strikes) Kalshi · Below 53 59% · -3.0 24h
Closest Senate race in 2026? Kalshi · Kansas 15% · -2.0 24h
Mississippi Senate winner? Kalshi · Cindy Hyde-Smith 89%
Maine Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Troy Jackson (D) 66% · +3.5 24h
Ohio Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Sherrod Brown (D) 70% · +3.0 24h
South Carolina Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Darline Graham Nordone (R) 74% · +1.5 24h
Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? Polymarket · None 26% · +10.0 24h
Alaska Senate winner? (Person) Kalshi · Mary Peltola 69%
Florida Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Moody (R) 90% · -2.0 24h
Kansas Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Roger Marshall (R) 52% · -6.0 24h
Blue tsunami in 2026? Kalshi · Yes 63% · +8.0 24h
Michigan Senate margin of victory Kalshi · El-Sayed, 1+ pts 73% · +9.0 24h
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Pete Ricketts (R) 68% · -3.0 24h
Texas Senate margin of victory Kalshi · James Talarico, 1+ pts 64%
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Polymarket · Yes 99% · +0.5 24h
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms? Polymarket · Oil ≥ $85; D Senate 66% · +1.8 24h
Iowa Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Ashley Hinson (R) 54% · -2.0 24h
Montana Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Kurt Alme (R) 86% · -2.0 24h
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? Polymarket · Yes 0% · -1.1 24h
Minnesota Senate Election Winner Polymarket · Peggy Flanagan (D) 92% · +0.5 24h
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms? Polymarket · No Hormuz Agreement 93%
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms? Polymarket · Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 67% · +1.8 24h
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

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Abdul El-Sayed Likely Wins Michigan's Senate Race in 2026

Abdul El-Sayed (D): likely (75%)

What had been a lean is now a firm Democratic advantage — and the broader Senate picture reinforces it, with Democrats also favored in Texas and Alaska while Republican holds in Kansas and Iowa have softened, pointing to a map that is moving against the GOP.

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Republicans Are Likely to Hold at Least 193 House Seats After the Midterms

193 or more Republican seats: likely (80%)

Retaining a floor of 193 seats would still leave Republicans a diminished minority — the House is very likely flipping Democratic, with full congressional control increasingly the base case for the party.

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U.S. wide open

JD Vance Leads a Wide-Open 2028 Presidential Field at a Thin 19%

JD Vance: unlikely (19%)

A plurality this slim is a statement of disorder, not dominance — Vance holds the Republican nomination at roughly even odds but converts that into only a 19% general-election chance, while Marco Rubio's quiet rise and a fractured Democratic field mean 2028 has no front-runner in any meaningful sense.

Updated 8:53 AM ET ▼ drifting down for days
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traded today $244K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 93 days range 25% (57d ago) – 17% (0d ago) trending in today's news venues disagree 21.1pp