World

Machado's Return to Venezuela This Year Is a Dead Heat

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?”

a coin flip (54%)
Leading outcome December 31 54% A coin flip · D
24h move ▲ 4.5 pts December 31
Traded 24h $14K $6.5M all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01

Where the money stands

December 31 54% ▲ 4.5
September 30 3% ▼ 2.6
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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A US-Iran Senior Meeting Is Now Likely Before Year-End

likely (76%)

What had been a coin flip on diplomacy is now a likely event — and the broader picture sharpens the stakes: ceasefires with both Israel and the US are holding, but the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked with shipping targeted daily, making these talks not a rapprochement but a negotiation under siege conditions. A final nuclear deal remains a long shot at 12%.

Updated 2:51 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $42K markets read 10 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 5 days range 87% (4d ago) – 60% (0d ago) a coin flip → likely
World

Hormuz Shipping Attacks Are Virtually Certain to Continue Through Late September

virtually certain (99%)

The blockade is entrenched, not ebbing — normalization odds sit at zero through September 30 and just 6% through October, meaning the disruption has graduated from crisis to baseline condition, with relief now a 2027 question at the earliest.

Updated 6:56 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $80K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 9 days range 99% (0d ago) – 76% (7d ago) resolves in 3 days leaning yes → virtually certain
World odds favor Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro Likely Finishes Second in Brazil's First Round

Flávio Bolsonaro: likely (75%)

The real story is what comes after: Lula is still favored to lead the first round, but a second-round runoff against a Bolsonaro is nearly certain, turning October into a straight left-right referendum with the outcome genuinely open — Flávio's win probability sits just above a coin flip.

Updated 7:01 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $91K markets read 5 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 60 days range 90% (21d ago) – 70% (5d ago) trending in today's news 7 tier changes venues disagree 42.2pp