Finance

A 1520-Score AI Model This Year Is Now Virtually Certain

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “AI capability growth this year?”

virtually certain (98%)
Leading outcome At least 1520 score 98% Virtually certain · Rising · C · tracked 29 days peak 98% · low 92% (28d ago) probably not → virtually certain
24h move ▲ 31.0 pts At least 1520 score
Traded 24h $60K $255K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01

Where the money stands

At least 1520 score 98% ▲ 31.0
At least 1530 score 98% ▲ 64.0
At least 1540 score 55% ▲ 37.0
At least 1550 score 15% ▲ 1.0
At least 1600 score 7% 0.0
At least 1700 score 5% 0.0
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from Finance

Finance Google on track to win

Google Is Likely the Top AI Lab by October's End

Google: likely (75%)

Anthropic's collapse — shedding nearly two-thirds of its probability overnight — is the real story: something in the market's collective read of the two companies' model pipelines has decisively shifted. Google's lead through October looks solid, but its advantage fades into a coin flip by December, suggesting rivals expect to close the gap before year-end.

Updated 8:14 PM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $435K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 42 days range 88% (2d ago) – 74% (23d ago) 2 tier changes
Finance odds favor No change

The Fed Looks Set to Hold Rates in October

No change: leaning yes (57%)

What had been a lean toward a hike is now a lean toward a pause — but this market has whipsawed four times, and a December hike still looks very likely, meaning the Fed's tightening cycle is probably delayed, not abandoned.

Updated 4:42 AM ET ▲ up sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $2.1M markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 64 days range 72% (34d ago) – 50% (13d ago) 4 tier changes
Finance

Google's Next Gemini Pro Release Is Now a Coin Flip for October

a coin flip (45%)

What had been a likely October launch has collapsed to a dead heat — a conviction-tier drop that suggests a delay signal reached the market. Gemini 4.0 by November still looks very likely, so the question is weeks, not months; but in AI, a month's delay can matter enormously given the competitive stakes reflected in the related AI model ranking markets.

Updated 8:14 PM ET ▼ down sharply overnight
the numbers
traded today $81K markets read 6 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 64 days range 98% (58d ago) – 14% (45d ago) likely → a coin flip 16 tier changes