U.S.

Republicans Are Likely to Hold at Least 193 House Seats After the Midterms

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Kalshi market “How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?”

193 or more Republican seats: likely (78%)
Resolved The money put Below 193 at 22% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome 193 or more Republican seats 78% Likely · Rising · A · tracked 61 days peak 32% (7d ago) · low 19% (59d ago)
24h move ▲ 1.6 pts 193 or more Republican seats
Traded 24h $52K $3.4M all time
Resolves by 2027-02-01
Source markets 8 8 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Below 193 31% ▲ 1.0
198-202 17% ▲ 1.0
193-197 16% ▲ 3.0
203-207 15% 0.0
208-212 11% 0.0
213-217 8% ▼ 0.7

Source markets for this story

Which party will win the U.S. House? Kalshi · Democratic Party 91%
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power? Kalshi · Democrats sweep 62%
Which party will win the U.S. Senate? Kalshi · Democratic Party 62%
Which party will win the House in 2026? Polymarket · Democratic Party 92%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Polymarket · Democrats Sweep 62% · +1.0 24h
How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 47 16%
How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms? Kalshi · 193 or more Republican seats 78% · +1.6 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) Kalshi · Democrats, 8 to 10% 28% · -1.0 24h
The Money Talks — The House Is Already Slipping Away From Republicans
View the market on Kalshi ← Front Page

More from U.S.

U.S. leaning J.D. Vance

Vance Leads the 2028 Republican Nomination Race as Rubio Closes In

J.D. Vance: a coin flip (45%)

Vance's incumbency advantage is real but far from decisive — his roughly even odds of securing the nomination mean the Republican field is genuinely open, and Rubio's surge signals the party is actively shopping for alternatives.

Updated 6:22 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $342K markets read 7 venue Kalshi grade A tracked 63 days range 46% (11d ago) – 39% (57d ago) probably not → a coin flip 7 tier changes venues disagree 31.9pp
U.S. Democratic Party on track to win

Democrats Are Very Likely to Retake the House in 2026

Democratic Party: very likely (92%)

A full sweep — House and Senate both flipping — is now priced at roughly 60%, meaning the House race is nearly settled in the money's view while the Senate remains genuinely competitive; Texas and Ohio are the fulcrums that separate a wave from a split result.

Updated 8:51 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $345K markets read 8 venue Polymarket grade A tracked 63 days range 92% (0d ago) – 86% (57d ago) 5 tier changes venues agree
U.S.

Alito Retirement Increasingly Expected by Mid-2027

probably not (38%)

A sharp single-day move suggests new information or sentiment is pulling retirement expectations forward, but at 38% the outcome remains genuinely uncertain — enough to keep a Republican-controlled confirmation window in play without locking it in.

Updated 5:21 PM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $21K venue Polymarket grade C tracked 58 days range 42% (7d ago) – 28% (51d ago)