WorldLula on track to win

Lula Is Very Likely to Carry Amapá in Brazil's Presidential Election

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Amapá”

Lula: very likely (94%)
From our archive This story ran in an earlier edition of the paper. It stays on the record at this address; the front page and sections carry only current stories.
Resolved The money put Lula at 94% when this article was published. This market has since closed. See the track record →
Leading outcome Lula 94% Very likely · C · tracked 15 days leaning yes → very likely venues disagree 3.5pp
24h move ▲ 29.5 pts Lula
Traded 24h $26K $71K all time
Resolves by 2026-10-05
Source markets 5 5 markets · mixed

Where the money stands

Lula 94% ▲ 29.5
Flavio Bolsonaro 4% ▼ 27.0
Clariana Barao 0% 0.0
Edmilson Costa 0% 0.0
Escritor Augusto Cury 0% 0.0
Hertz Dias 0% 0.0

Source markets for this story

Brazil Presidential Election Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · +2.1 24h
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory Polymarket · Flávio Bolsonaro <4% 40% · -1.0 24h
Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi · Flávio Bolsonaro 80% · +1.0 24h
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá Polymarket · Flavio Bolsonaro 79% · +15.5 24h
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará Polymarket · Lula 79% · -0.5 24h
The Money Talks — Flávio Bolsonaro Probably Wins in 2026 — and the Race Just Shifted Beneath Lula's Feet
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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