World

North Korea Will Not Invade South Korea This Year

By Priced In News Staff

Source: Polymarket market “Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?”

virtually impossible (2%)
Leading outcome Yes 2% Virtually impossible · C very unlikely → virtually impossible
24h move ▼ 3.5 pts Yes
Traded 24h $30K $488K all time
Resolves by 2027-01-01
View the market on Polymarket ← Front Page

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Marine Le Pen Leads a Volatile French Presidential Race

Marine Le Pen: probably not (42%)

Her position is stronger than it was three months ago but well off last week's peak, and the field behind her — Philippe, Lisnard, and Mélenchon splitting the remaining vote nearly evenly — means a runoff outcome remains genuinely unpredictable.

Updated 11:24 PM ET – barely changed since yesterday
the numbers
traded today $1.3M venue Polymarket grade B tracked 94 days range 48% (12d ago) – 29% (93d ago) 4 tier changes
World odds favor 2.7-2.8M

Iran's Rial Holds Above 2.7 Million Per Dollar as Sanctions Freeze In Place

2.7-2.8M: leaning yes (70%)

Ceasefires with both the US and Israel are holding at near-certainty, but a nuclear deal this year sits at 14% and Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end at 12% — meaning the sanctions architecture stays intact and the rial stabilizes in weakness, not recovery.

Updated 12:43 AM ET ▲ up overnight
the numbers
traded today $34K markets read 19 venue Polymarket grade B resolves in 1 day very likely → leaning yes
World

A Western Leader's Visit to Ukraine Is Now a Coin Flip

a coin flip (46%)

JD Vance and Melania Trump have both collapsed as likely visitors, stripping the market of its earlier confidence and leaving even NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte — the nominal frontrunner — at barely a coin flip. The signal across related markets is of a war grinding toward a ceasefire, but without the high-profile diplomatic gestures that would signal real momentum.

Updated 12:43 AM ET ▼ drifting down for days
the numbers
traded today $36K markets read 7 venue Polymarket grade B tracked 94 days range 98% (55d ago) – 42% (12d ago) leaning yes → a coin flip 9 tier changes